There are three stellar games this Saturday night and all three of them feature two teams in the top 25. For this article, I'll be giving you my take on all three of them; topping it off with my take and pick on the game of the year so far, between #1 LSU heading into #2 Alabama.
#9 South Carolina at #7 Arkansas
Two teams, each with a loss to a conference opponent face off this Saturday night as the Gamecocks head into Arkansas to face the Razerbacks. While Arkansas' loss is not nearly as bad as South Carolina’s, this will be an extremely important game for both clubs. Arkansas is looking up at both Alabama and LSU in the Western division of the SEC, knowing that one of them will be a one loss football team come Sunday morning. If Tyler Wilson can carve up the Gamecock's good defense, the Razerbacks should have a great game.
#14 Kansas State at #3 Oklahoma State
Coming off an embarrassing loss last week to Oklahoma 58-17, the Wildcats of Kansas State face an even tougher opponent this week when they head back to the Oklahoma City metropolitan area; this time to face the Cowboys of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have one of the most balanced teams in all of college football this season. Their #3 rank is well deserved with strong road wins against #8 Texas A&M and at #22 Texas.
I feel that sportsbooks have inflated this line considering Kansas State got blown out last week and the Cowboys beat down the Baylor Bears 59-24. However, I was wrong picking Kansas State last week as 13 point underdogs and after watching that game I'm convinced, the Wildcats are on their last dying breath. The Cowboys can score in bunches and I expect more of the same this week.
#1 Louisiana State at #2 Alabama
And now, the one we've all been waiting for. I don't think I've been this excited about a regular season college football game in a long time. The media coverage has been off the charts and the town of Gadsden is probably crawling with pretty blonde national television reporters...
Anyway, not deterring from the game, it's kind of a shame that one of these teams will probably not be in the BCS title game while the winner will almost definitely be there. I think the Associated Press in Tuscaloosa put it best, “after a nearly two month build up, Judgement Day --SEC Style-- is now just days away.”
This game will feature a bit of everything. Two great defenses with tons of future NFL prospects; the triple threat running attack of LSU Tigers opposed to the Heisman candidate rusher from Alabama and two head coaches that are two of the most respected, feared and recognized names in college football.
The college football betting lines for this one opened at -4 in favor of the home Crimson Tide, but since then has moved to -5. The college football odds most likely moved because over 60% of the money being put on this game has been laid on the road underdog Tigers. I'm not buying it. Though both of these teams have good defenses, I like the Tide at home this season. It's going to be physical, messy and a great game to watch; but I'm going against the public and once again I'm going with the home favorite.
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Thursday, November 3, 2011
Monday, October 31, 2011
NFL Free MNF Play!
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Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 45
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Last 3 games between Chargers and Chiefs have gone UNDER the total.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 12 games.
Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 45
-----------------------------
Last 3 games between Chargers and Chiefs have gone UNDER the total.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 12 games.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Ravens vs Jaguars MNF Betting Preview
The Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars are set to battle in this week's MNF game. The second part of our series of articles capping the Monday Night Football showdown is going to discuss betting the total, which is set at 39.
This is the lowest total of all the 13 games in week seven and it could provide some good value bets for you Monday Night NFL picks.
I first examined the opening line for this matchup where the Ravens are favored by seven to nine points on the road. Some have been arguing that NFL odds makers have set the point spread too high, and that the total is very low.
Ravens Soaring
While the Patriot's offense has had a lot of press for dropping thirty points for so many consecutive games, the Ravens have quietly scored 30 + three of their five games, and have averaged 32 points per contest. The Ravens are extremely balanced on offense. Ray Rice is averaging nearly 4.5 yards per carry and while most running backs have had six games to get to these totals, Rice has 700 all purpose yards and 4 touchdowns in five games.
Joe Flacco also has been playing well and silencing some of his critics. After last season, critics around the league were labeling Flacco as an average quarterback that couldn't win the big game. While neither of those labels can be completely disproven just yet, Flacco is leading on of the best AFC teams to another great season. His statistical numbers aren't anything to get excited about. However, he has thrown only four interceptions on the year and his decision making has been better than any time in his career.
While the Ravens offense has been more than serviceable, Baltimore's defense is once again the reason why their team has been so good through five games. Teams are averaging only 11.8 points per game against the Ravens defense and the only time they gave up more than 400 yards of offense in a game, they lost to the Titans.
Gabbert Growing Pains
After replacing Luke McCowen as the Jaguars starting quarterback, Blaine Gabbert has shown some good signs as well as some struggles. However, I am one to argue that he has looked better every game. He even gave his team a chance to win during a last second hail mary against the Steelers last week. However, the Jags rank dead last in passing offense averaging only 132 yards per game.
Jacksonville's defense has been pretty good despite losing five straight. As mentioned in my spread opener, Jacksonville held the Steelers to 70 yards of offense in the second half. With the exception of New Orleans, Baltimore will be the best offense Jacksonville has faced so far this season and Ray Rice is by far the best runner. If the Jags are to slow down the Raven offense, they will have to defend the run better then what they have been.
Betting the Total
On the surface, this line screams over and though it isn't a lock, I can see the Ravens blasting the Jags on the road and scoring another 30 points. Despite Jacksonville being good on defense, they will have a tough time slowing down Ray Rice, who will set up some nice play action passes to a good receiving core for Baltimore.
Even though the Jaguars have had trouble moving the ball, Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to be ok versus the Raven's defense and sooner or later, Gabbert is going to get things together. He is too good of a talent and his supporting cast is better then some of the other's being utilized by other rookie quarterbacks. I'm really high on the Ravens this year and both teams have the ability to put points on the board. 39 is just too inviting of a number.
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SBR Forum | Jordan Sharp
This is the lowest total of all the 13 games in week seven and it could provide some good value bets for you Monday Night NFL picks.
I first examined the opening line for this matchup where the Ravens are favored by seven to nine points on the road. Some have been arguing that NFL odds makers have set the point spread too high, and that the total is very low.
Ravens Soaring
While the Patriot's offense has had a lot of press for dropping thirty points for so many consecutive games, the Ravens have quietly scored 30 + three of their five games, and have averaged 32 points per contest. The Ravens are extremely balanced on offense. Ray Rice is averaging nearly 4.5 yards per carry and while most running backs have had six games to get to these totals, Rice has 700 all purpose yards and 4 touchdowns in five games.
Joe Flacco also has been playing well and silencing some of his critics. After last season, critics around the league were labeling Flacco as an average quarterback that couldn't win the big game. While neither of those labels can be completely disproven just yet, Flacco is leading on of the best AFC teams to another great season. His statistical numbers aren't anything to get excited about. However, he has thrown only four interceptions on the year and his decision making has been better than any time in his career.
While the Ravens offense has been more than serviceable, Baltimore's defense is once again the reason why their team has been so good through five games. Teams are averaging only 11.8 points per game against the Ravens defense and the only time they gave up more than 400 yards of offense in a game, they lost to the Titans.
Gabbert Growing Pains
After replacing Luke McCowen as the Jaguars starting quarterback, Blaine Gabbert has shown some good signs as well as some struggles. However, I am one to argue that he has looked better every game. He even gave his team a chance to win during a last second hail mary against the Steelers last week. However, the Jags rank dead last in passing offense averaging only 132 yards per game.
Jacksonville's defense has been pretty good despite losing five straight. As mentioned in my spread opener, Jacksonville held the Steelers to 70 yards of offense in the second half. With the exception of New Orleans, Baltimore will be the best offense Jacksonville has faced so far this season and Ray Rice is by far the best runner. If the Jags are to slow down the Raven offense, they will have to defend the run better then what they have been.
Betting the Total
On the surface, this line screams over and though it isn't a lock, I can see the Ravens blasting the Jags on the road and scoring another 30 points. Despite Jacksonville being good on defense, they will have a tough time slowing down Ray Rice, who will set up some nice play action passes to a good receiving core for Baltimore.
Even though the Jaguars have had trouble moving the ball, Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to be ok versus the Raven's defense and sooner or later, Gabbert is going to get things together. He is too good of a talent and his supporting cast is better then some of the other's being utilized by other rookie quarterbacks. I'm really high on the Ravens this year and both teams have the ability to put points on the board. 39 is just too inviting of a number.
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SBR Forum | Jordan Sharp
Friday, October 21, 2011
10/21: NCAAF Free Play of the Day!
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RUTGERS -1 (-110)
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Game Notes:
Rutgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Rutgers is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Rutgers's last 5 games when playing Louisville.
Louisville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Louisville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
RUTGERS -1 (-110)
--------------------
Game Notes:
Rutgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Rutgers is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Rutgers's last 5 games when playing Louisville.
Louisville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Louisville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
2011 World Series Betting Preview
The 2011 World Series will feature the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers. Read our full breakdown of the pitching matchups, as well as all of the info you need for betting the total in this showdown.
The 2011 World Series begins Wednesday night in St. Louis with the Cardinals hosting the two-time American League champion Texas Rangers. MLB bettors are already dissecting every angle of the game from the money line to the first five innings to the total to the World Series Championship price.
Game 1 is Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Chris Carpenter and the Cards opened at Legends Sportsbook as a slight favorite at -122 with the total at 7.5. To me the intriguing part of MLB betting in this series is the possibility that given the respective offense’s every game could go ‘over’ and with the dominant bullpens a case could be made for the ‘under’ to be the prevalent play.
For starters, Texas manager Ron Washington is going to need to get a lot more from his Game 1 starter C.J. Wilson (16-9, 3.28) who so far has been a playoff bust in 2011. He is 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 15 2/3 innings (three starts) this postseason. He's given up 14 earned runs on 21 hits with six of those home runs.
Not surprisingly four of the six games between the Rangers and Tigers went ‘over’ the closing total while the Rangers were 19-12 to the high side in Wilson’s 2011 starts.
St. Louis will have its ace Chris Carpenter (13-9, 3.47 ERA) on the hill in Game 1 as he looks to improve on a 2-0 playoff record and a 3.71 ERA. All three of Carpenter’s starts playoff starts have played ‘under’ the total but he was 18-18 during the regular season. In the National League championship series, the ‘over’ was 4-1-1.
But Wilson has been shoddy in this postseason (0-2 with an 8.04 ERA) and Carpenter is the lone Cardinals starter with a postseason ERA lower than 5.74.
Pitching plans
A glance at the recent work of the starting pitchers on both sides would indicate that this World Series, more so than any other in recent years, could produce a plethora of high scoring games meaning a great time to make your MLB picks in favor of the 'Over'. The starters on each side were bad in the championship series.
The Cardinals' starters went 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA in six games in the National League Championship Series. The Rangers' rotation was 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA in six games in the ALCS. Both teams need much better efforts if they plan to hoist the championship trophy.
Game 2; Derek Holland (14-10, 4.45 ERA) vs. Jaime García (13-7, 3.56 ERA)
One thing these two pitchers will have in common is a short leash.
Garcia made two starts in the NLDS and St. Louis likes to pitch the young lefthander at home whenever possible, thus he gets the call in Game 2. He’s allowed 10 runs in 15.2 innings this postseason, making it out of the fifth inning in just one of his three starts. His ERA in the playoffs is 5.74.
Holland will be making his fourth start of the playoffs and like everyone else in both rotations he has struggled. He’s 1-0 but his ERA is 5.27 and opposing batters are hitting .316. That’s potentially bad news against the predominantly right hand hitting Cardinals lineup.
Game 3; Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.49 ERA) vs. Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA)
Neither team produced a quality win in their recent series. In fact the longest a team's starter went in any of the combined 12 games was the Rangers' Colby Lewis who lasted 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 against the Tigers. Lewis is also one of the few hurlers on either side with an ERA of under 4.00 (3.43 on the road and 5.54 ERA at home). For his career he’s been a solid postseason starter posting a 2.37 ERA, including a victory in last year’s World Series against San Francisco.
Lohse, however, has been awful in the playoffs so far, with a 7.45 ERA, and 9 runs, 8 earned, in just 9.2 innings. In his 8 career playoff outings, Lohse has a 5.09 ERA.
Game 4; Edwin Jackson (5-2, 3.58 ERA) vs. Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA)
While Harrison hasn’t gone deep into either of his two starts, he has allowed only 2 runs in 5 innings in each game and that should give the Rangers hope. This will be Harrison’s third start and fourth appearance of the playoffs.
The much traveled Edwin Jackson is 1-0 in three starts but his ERA is sky high (5.74) and opposing batters are hitting .316 against him.
*Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa has ‘hinted’ that he may flip flop Lohse and Jackson in the rotation but won’t make that determination until after Game 1 at the earliest.
Following Game 4, most managers will change their rotation depending on how the series is progressing. At the moment, Game 5 would be a rematch of Wilson against Carpenter. Holland and Garcia would square off in Game 6 with Lohse against Lewis for all the marbles.
In 11 postseason games, St. Louis has notched just three quality starts (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed), while the Rangers have just one quality start in 10 outings. The managers share a large part of the blame for the lack of long outings and both skippers aren’t afraid to go to the pen at the first hint of a possible big inning.
Bullpens will decide the winner
Closer Alexi Ogando, a 13-game winner during the regular season has been almost 'Mariano Rivera good' this postseason. He’s got two wins and has allowed one run, four hits and 12 strikeouts in 10.1 innings. He’s had to be good because the Texas starters have come up woefully short. C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison combined for a 6.59 ERA in the ALCS and has turned in just one quality start in 10 postseason games.
St. Louis' bullpen, which ranked 21st in the majors in the regular season with a 3.95 ERA, pitched in just over 54 percent of the team's innings -- the fifth-highest percentage ever for an LCS -- and contributed a 1.58 ERA.
Cruz vs. Pujols
Nelson Cruz is on a ‘high’ that very few players ever experience. After going 1 for 15 in the ALDS against Tampa Bay, he switched into another gear hit .364 against Detroit with six home runs and 13 runs batted in. He is the singular reason the Rangers and not the Tigers are headed to the World Series.
Pujols has turned in his best postseason series since 2002 going 18 for 43 (.419) with 2 homers and 10 RBI’s.
There are other reasons why we should expect a high-scoring series. The Rangers were first in the majors in hitting (.283), second in home runs (210) and third in scoring (5.28). The Redbirds were fifth in scoring (4.70), fifth in batting average (2.73) and 13th in home runs (162).
The baseball world is well aware of Cruz and Pujols and their respective performances but who is this guy David Freese? He who won the NLCS MVP by hitting .545 with three home runs and nine runs batted in and he’s another reason why the ‘over’ figures to be the predominant ‘bet’ in the 2011 Fall Classic.
Overall, the Cardinals are 91-72-1 to the ‘over’ (playoffs included) while the Rangers are 93-74-6 to the high side.
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SBR Forum | Bob Harvey
The 2011 World Series begins Wednesday night in St. Louis with the Cardinals hosting the two-time American League champion Texas Rangers. MLB bettors are already dissecting every angle of the game from the money line to the first five innings to the total to the World Series Championship price.
Game 1 is Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Chris Carpenter and the Cards opened at Legends Sportsbook as a slight favorite at -122 with the total at 7.5. To me the intriguing part of MLB betting in this series is the possibility that given the respective offense’s every game could go ‘over’ and with the dominant bullpens a case could be made for the ‘under’ to be the prevalent play.
For starters, Texas manager Ron Washington is going to need to get a lot more from his Game 1 starter C.J. Wilson (16-9, 3.28) who so far has been a playoff bust in 2011. He is 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 15 2/3 innings (three starts) this postseason. He's given up 14 earned runs on 21 hits with six of those home runs.
Not surprisingly four of the six games between the Rangers and Tigers went ‘over’ the closing total while the Rangers were 19-12 to the high side in Wilson’s 2011 starts.
St. Louis will have its ace Chris Carpenter (13-9, 3.47 ERA) on the hill in Game 1 as he looks to improve on a 2-0 playoff record and a 3.71 ERA. All three of Carpenter’s starts playoff starts have played ‘under’ the total but he was 18-18 during the regular season. In the National League championship series, the ‘over’ was 4-1-1.
But Wilson has been shoddy in this postseason (0-2 with an 8.04 ERA) and Carpenter is the lone Cardinals starter with a postseason ERA lower than 5.74.
Pitching plans
A glance at the recent work of the starting pitchers on both sides would indicate that this World Series, more so than any other in recent years, could produce a plethora of high scoring games meaning a great time to make your MLB picks in favor of the 'Over'. The starters on each side were bad in the championship series.
The Cardinals' starters went 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA in six games in the National League Championship Series. The Rangers' rotation was 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA in six games in the ALCS. Both teams need much better efforts if they plan to hoist the championship trophy.
Game 2; Derek Holland (14-10, 4.45 ERA) vs. Jaime García (13-7, 3.56 ERA)
One thing these two pitchers will have in common is a short leash.
Garcia made two starts in the NLDS and St. Louis likes to pitch the young lefthander at home whenever possible, thus he gets the call in Game 2. He’s allowed 10 runs in 15.2 innings this postseason, making it out of the fifth inning in just one of his three starts. His ERA in the playoffs is 5.74.
Holland will be making his fourth start of the playoffs and like everyone else in both rotations he has struggled. He’s 1-0 but his ERA is 5.27 and opposing batters are hitting .316. That’s potentially bad news against the predominantly right hand hitting Cardinals lineup.
Game 3; Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.49 ERA) vs. Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA)
Neither team produced a quality win in their recent series. In fact the longest a team's starter went in any of the combined 12 games was the Rangers' Colby Lewis who lasted 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 against the Tigers. Lewis is also one of the few hurlers on either side with an ERA of under 4.00 (3.43 on the road and 5.54 ERA at home). For his career he’s been a solid postseason starter posting a 2.37 ERA, including a victory in last year’s World Series against San Francisco.
Lohse, however, has been awful in the playoffs so far, with a 7.45 ERA, and 9 runs, 8 earned, in just 9.2 innings. In his 8 career playoff outings, Lohse has a 5.09 ERA.
Game 4; Edwin Jackson (5-2, 3.58 ERA) vs. Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA)
While Harrison hasn’t gone deep into either of his two starts, he has allowed only 2 runs in 5 innings in each game and that should give the Rangers hope. This will be Harrison’s third start and fourth appearance of the playoffs.
The much traveled Edwin Jackson is 1-0 in three starts but his ERA is sky high (5.74) and opposing batters are hitting .316 against him.
*Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa has ‘hinted’ that he may flip flop Lohse and Jackson in the rotation but won’t make that determination until after Game 1 at the earliest.
Following Game 4, most managers will change their rotation depending on how the series is progressing. At the moment, Game 5 would be a rematch of Wilson against Carpenter. Holland and Garcia would square off in Game 6 with Lohse against Lewis for all the marbles.
In 11 postseason games, St. Louis has notched just three quality starts (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed), while the Rangers have just one quality start in 10 outings. The managers share a large part of the blame for the lack of long outings and both skippers aren’t afraid to go to the pen at the first hint of a possible big inning.
Bullpens will decide the winner
Closer Alexi Ogando, a 13-game winner during the regular season has been almost 'Mariano Rivera good' this postseason. He’s got two wins and has allowed one run, four hits and 12 strikeouts in 10.1 innings. He’s had to be good because the Texas starters have come up woefully short. C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison combined for a 6.59 ERA in the ALCS and has turned in just one quality start in 10 postseason games.
St. Louis' bullpen, which ranked 21st in the majors in the regular season with a 3.95 ERA, pitched in just over 54 percent of the team's innings -- the fifth-highest percentage ever for an LCS -- and contributed a 1.58 ERA.
Cruz vs. Pujols
Nelson Cruz is on a ‘high’ that very few players ever experience. After going 1 for 15 in the ALDS against Tampa Bay, he switched into another gear hit .364 against Detroit with six home runs and 13 runs batted in. He is the singular reason the Rangers and not the Tigers are headed to the World Series.
Pujols has turned in his best postseason series since 2002 going 18 for 43 (.419) with 2 homers and 10 RBI’s.
There are other reasons why we should expect a high-scoring series. The Rangers were first in the majors in hitting (.283), second in home runs (210) and third in scoring (5.28). The Redbirds were fifth in scoring (4.70), fifth in batting average (2.73) and 13th in home runs (162).
The baseball world is well aware of Cruz and Pujols and their respective performances but who is this guy David Freese? He who won the NLCS MVP by hitting .545 with three home runs and nine runs batted in and he’s another reason why the ‘over’ figures to be the predominant ‘bet’ in the 2011 Fall Classic.
Overall, the Cardinals are 91-72-1 to the ‘over’ (playoffs included) while the Rangers are 93-74-6 to the high side.
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SBR Forum | Bob Harvey
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
What To Watch For: 2011 World Series
What to watch for in the 2011 World Series:
Cruz Control
The Rangers' right fielder did it all in the ALCS, putting on an unprecedented power show and cutting down a runner at the plate with a rocket throw in a crucial situation. He had six homers and 13 RBIs - both major league records for a postseason series - and finished 8 for 22 (.364) with two doubles. He seems to enjoy the spotlight, too. Cruz was 15 for 40 (.375) with 5 HRs, 5 doubles and 8 RBIs in the AL playoffs last season before going 4 for 20 (.200) with a homer and 3 RBIs in the World Series.
Fond Farewell
Pujols got a standing ovation before his final regular-season game at home and he'll get at least two more doses of love from adoring St. Louis fans in the World Series. The three-time MVP has had nothing of substance to say about his impending free agency since cutting off negotiations on a long-term deal before the start of spring training. Rather than allowing Pujols' situation to paralyze them, the Cardinals have already started planning for next season by signing Berkman to a one-year deal and Carpenter to a two-year extension. They've also stated interest in retaining Furcal.
Young At Heart
Young adapted to his new role this year and had a team-high 159 starts, the ninth time in 10 seasons he played at least 155 games. He started 69 as the DH, 39 at third base, 36 at first, 14 at second and one at shortstop. He became the only player to have at least 200 hits (213) while playing 35 games or more at three different positions. Before last year, Young had played 1,508 regular-season games without tasting the postseason. This year, Game 1 of the World Series is scheduled on his 35th birthday.
Spark Plug
The scrappy Schumaker, who can also play the outfield, missed the NLCS because of a strained muscle on his right side. He expects to be available for the World Series. Schumaker went 6 for 10 in the division series with 2 doubles and 3 RBIs. He drove in the only run against Halladay in the first inning of Game 5.
RECEIVE WORLD SERIES PICKS HERE!
AP
Cruz Control
The Rangers' right fielder did it all in the ALCS, putting on an unprecedented power show and cutting down a runner at the plate with a rocket throw in a crucial situation. He had six homers and 13 RBIs - both major league records for a postseason series - and finished 8 for 22 (.364) with two doubles. He seems to enjoy the spotlight, too. Cruz was 15 for 40 (.375) with 5 HRs, 5 doubles and 8 RBIs in the AL playoffs last season before going 4 for 20 (.200) with a homer and 3 RBIs in the World Series.
Fond Farewell
Pujols got a standing ovation before his final regular-season game at home and he'll get at least two more doses of love from adoring St. Louis fans in the World Series. The three-time MVP has had nothing of substance to say about his impending free agency since cutting off negotiations on a long-term deal before the start of spring training. Rather than allowing Pujols' situation to paralyze them, the Cardinals have already started planning for next season by signing Berkman to a one-year deal and Carpenter to a two-year extension. They've also stated interest in retaining Furcal.
Young At Heart
Young adapted to his new role this year and had a team-high 159 starts, the ninth time in 10 seasons he played at least 155 games. He started 69 as the DH, 39 at third base, 36 at first, 14 at second and one at shortstop. He became the only player to have at least 200 hits (213) while playing 35 games or more at three different positions. Before last year, Young had played 1,508 regular-season games without tasting the postseason. This year, Game 1 of the World Series is scheduled on his 35th birthday.
Spark Plug
The scrappy Schumaker, who can also play the outfield, missed the NLCS because of a strained muscle on his right side. He expects to be available for the World Series. Schumaker went 6 for 10 in the division series with 2 doubles and 3 RBIs. He drove in the only run against Halladay in the first inning of Game 5.
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AP
Monday, October 10, 2011
Bears vs Lions Betting Preview
The Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions will finish up the week five schedule with a matchup in primetime on Monday Night Football. NFL odds list the game's total at 48 points, but does the 'Over' or 'Under' hold the most value for bettors?
I have already provided an article focusing on the opening lines for this game's spread, so now lets turn to the 'Total' line and decide what is the best NFL betting option on Monday Night.
The NFL odds boards opened with the 'Total' at 47, and has moved up slightly to 48. This will be a hard hitting, competitive, and possibly even “chippy” game. These two divisional rivals don't like each other and both have a chip on their shoulder and something to prove.
Past Match-ups
You really can't take too much of these past meetings as reliable intel; considering before the end of last season, the Lions were the whipping boys of the NFC North. However, of all the meetings between these two teams in the last ten years, under 48 would have cashed a staggering 16-4, including the two most recent times they hooked up. As I mentioned before, you really can't read too much into that.
The one matchup that does say something is from week one of last year. Matt Stafford was knocked out in the first half with a shoulder injury. Before he left, he went 11/15 with 83 yards. Shaun Hill didn't do much better. He completed less than 50% of his passes and threw a pick. Jay Cutler carved them up for 374 yards and a couple of touchdowns. You might remember this game as the one that Calvin Johnson caught a late touchdown which would have been the winning score, but he didn't finish with the football as he came to the ground and the Lions lost the game. The final score was 19-14 Bears.
The second game between these two was also close and ended 24-20 in favor of the Bears. Once again, the Lions were on the wrong side of a crucial call. Ndamukong Suh was flagged for roughing the passer late in the fourth, which set up first and goal and the game winning score for the Bears.
Cutler vs Stafford; Suh vs Urlacher
The Lions currently rank 7th among NFL teams in passing, while the Bears rank 25th. In the running game, the Lions rank 29th, while the Bears rank 20th. As I mentioned in the spread opener, the Lions will most likely try and throw the ball early and often to take advantage of Chicago's weak secondary. The Bears on the other hand, will try and control the clock by giving a heavy workload to Matt Forte.
I don't really trust the rankings from these two teams either. Once again, the season is still young. The Lions have played a soft schedule while the Bears have had a tough road to week five. The Bears are giving up an average of 23 points per game while the Lions are giving up 19. Both sides, especially Detroit, will be sending a heavy pass rush from their front four trying to disrupt the opposing quarterback.
While it hasn't worked out well in the past (or for any other team this season) the Bears will put two defenders in Calvin Johnson's face all night. The Lions have shown a weakness in running the football, so Stafford will have to rely on his arm against the Bear's cover 2 defense.
NFC North slugfests
Since the season is so young, I like to take these teams 2010 seasons into account a little more; especially the 6 divisional games. The Bears average totals against NFC north opponents last year was just under 37, while the Lions were at 34. The fact is that the NFC North may be the most competitive division in football this year. It could be the NFC South of last season. They know the opponents and their schemes, which makes for a closer more low scoring games.
The general consensus if you look at this game on the surface would tell you to bet the over. The Lions are rolling, the Bears are struggling on defense and Calvin Johnson looks like the second coming of Randy Moss. So the over is a lock, right? Not so fast. As I've mentioned time and again, the season is young and these these two teams have not played equal talent yet. Plus, even though defense this year has been behind offense because of the lockout, they have to catch up sooner than later.
This game will be won by defense. Detroit couldn't run the ball against bad teams, so they will be very one dimensional in their attack. One could argue that the Bears are one dimensional as well, but defending the run is something Detroit hasn't been able to do against any of the teams they have faced. 48 is a hard number to hit, plus, with the short drive from Chicago to Detroit, don't expect there to be zero Bears fans at Ford Field.
SBR Forum | Jordan Sharp
I have already provided an article focusing on the opening lines for this game's spread, so now lets turn to the 'Total' line and decide what is the best NFL betting option on Monday Night.
The NFL odds boards opened with the 'Total' at 47, and has moved up slightly to 48. This will be a hard hitting, competitive, and possibly even “chippy” game. These two divisional rivals don't like each other and both have a chip on their shoulder and something to prove.
Past Match-ups
You really can't take too much of these past meetings as reliable intel; considering before the end of last season, the Lions were the whipping boys of the NFC North. However, of all the meetings between these two teams in the last ten years, under 48 would have cashed a staggering 16-4, including the two most recent times they hooked up. As I mentioned before, you really can't read too much into that.
The one matchup that does say something is from week one of last year. Matt Stafford was knocked out in the first half with a shoulder injury. Before he left, he went 11/15 with 83 yards. Shaun Hill didn't do much better. He completed less than 50% of his passes and threw a pick. Jay Cutler carved them up for 374 yards and a couple of touchdowns. You might remember this game as the one that Calvin Johnson caught a late touchdown which would have been the winning score, but he didn't finish with the football as he came to the ground and the Lions lost the game. The final score was 19-14 Bears.
The second game between these two was also close and ended 24-20 in favor of the Bears. Once again, the Lions were on the wrong side of a crucial call. Ndamukong Suh was flagged for roughing the passer late in the fourth, which set up first and goal and the game winning score for the Bears.
Cutler vs Stafford; Suh vs Urlacher
The Lions currently rank 7th among NFL teams in passing, while the Bears rank 25th. In the running game, the Lions rank 29th, while the Bears rank 20th. As I mentioned in the spread opener, the Lions will most likely try and throw the ball early and often to take advantage of Chicago's weak secondary. The Bears on the other hand, will try and control the clock by giving a heavy workload to Matt Forte.
I don't really trust the rankings from these two teams either. Once again, the season is still young. The Lions have played a soft schedule while the Bears have had a tough road to week five. The Bears are giving up an average of 23 points per game while the Lions are giving up 19. Both sides, especially Detroit, will be sending a heavy pass rush from their front four trying to disrupt the opposing quarterback.
While it hasn't worked out well in the past (or for any other team this season) the Bears will put two defenders in Calvin Johnson's face all night. The Lions have shown a weakness in running the football, so Stafford will have to rely on his arm against the Bear's cover 2 defense.
NFC North slugfests
Since the season is so young, I like to take these teams 2010 seasons into account a little more; especially the 6 divisional games. The Bears average totals against NFC north opponents last year was just under 37, while the Lions were at 34. The fact is that the NFC North may be the most competitive division in football this year. It could be the NFC South of last season. They know the opponents and their schemes, which makes for a closer more low scoring games.
The general consensus if you look at this game on the surface would tell you to bet the over. The Lions are rolling, the Bears are struggling on defense and Calvin Johnson looks like the second coming of Randy Moss. So the over is a lock, right? Not so fast. As I've mentioned time and again, the season is young and these these two teams have not played equal talent yet. Plus, even though defense this year has been behind offense because of the lockout, they have to catch up sooner than later.
This game will be won by defense. Detroit couldn't run the ball against bad teams, so they will be very one dimensional in their attack. One could argue that the Bears are one dimensional as well, but defending the run is something Detroit hasn't been able to do against any of the teams they have faced. 48 is a hard number to hit, plus, with the short drive from Chicago to Detroit, don't expect there to be zero Bears fans at Ford Field.
SBR Forum | Jordan Sharp
Friday, October 7, 2011
Halladay vs Carpenter in Game 5
It's do or die as the Phillies and the Cardinals meet in the NLDS Game 5.
The St. Louis Cardinals held on for Wednesday’s 5-3 win as 103 home dogs against the Philadelphia Phillies, forcing Friday’s deciding Game 5 of the rivals’ National League Division Series. Cardinals third baseman David Freese cracked a homer and double, while closer Jason Motte recorded his second save of the postseason.
Friday’s matchup has a pair of marquee right-handed starters squaring off, with Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay (20-6, 2.38 ERA) listed to oppose St. Louis’ Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.56 ERA).
Sportsbooks opened Halladay as a 190 favorite, with early MLB betting action on the Cardinals dropping the premium to minus 175. MLB odds makers first set the ‘total’ at 6 ½ ‘over’ (minus 120), remaining unchanged on most boards after initial betting action.
Halladay returns after strong opener
Roy Halladay was on the hill for Saturday’s 11-6 win for Philadelphia, cashing as a 215 home favorite in Game 1 of the NLDS. The eight-time All-Star allowed three runs in eight innings (105 pitches), including a homer from Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman.
Halladay’s victory avenged the veteran’s Sept. 19 defeat against the Cardinals, with Philadelphia edged out, 4-3, as 199 home ‘chalk.’ Berkman cracked a homer in that matchup as well, finishing 2-for-2 with a pair of RBIs.
Philadelphia is 53-30 in its first 83 home dates, with the ‘under’ going 39-38-6. Halladay is 8-3 in 15 home starts, with a 0.99 WHIP and .253 OBP.
Carpenter back after short stint
Carpenter logged a no-decision in Sunday’s Game 2, with St. Louis rallying in a 5-4 win as a 162 road dog. The 36-year-old gave up all four of Philadelphia’s runs over three innings (64 pitches), allowing five hits and three walks.
Carpenter went 2-0 against the Phillies in his pair of regular-season outings against Charlie Manuel’s club. Philadelphia mustered just one run in a combined 15 innings against Carpenter over the two affairs.
St. Louis is 46-37 in its first 83 road games, with the ‘over’ cashing at 49-31-3. Carpenter has a 7-6 mark in 18 road outings, with a 1.31 WHIP and .314 OBP.
Back the ‘under’ with tight hurlers
Friday’s first pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET). The weather forecast in Philadelphia calls for a clear 60-degree night, with calm winds.
In today's MLB Free Pick I am backing the ‘under,’ looking for a tight battle despite the ‘over’ having gone 3-1 in the series thus far.
Halladay should be able to go deep tonight for the Phillies, while having a surrounding cast of relievers who can be brought in to shut down a clutch situation. The 2010 National League Cy Young winner has been in top form, allowing just 10 earned runs in his last 52 IP.
Carpenter’s early exit in Game 2 should leave the three-time All-Star’s arm sharper for tonight’s must-win affair. The hurler tossed three shutouts in his last five regular-season outings, giving up a stingy five runs over a 40-inning span.
The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Carpenter’s last five outings with four or more days of rest, while going 6-2 in spots that followed Philadelphia giving up five or more runs in its prior game.
Umpire Gary Cederstrom is slated to call the balls and strikes, with the ‘under’ cashing at 6-2 in the North Dakota native’s last eight outings behind the plate. The span included a start from Carpenter on Sept. 23 which went ‘under’ after the veteran allowed just one run in seven innings against the Chicago Cubs.
Before making your MLB Picks here, wait for the ‘total’ to possibly rise come game time and get your best price with the ‘under’ in this deciding duel.
SBR Forum | Joe Freda
The St. Louis Cardinals held on for Wednesday’s 5-3 win as 103 home dogs against the Philadelphia Phillies, forcing Friday’s deciding Game 5 of the rivals’ National League Division Series. Cardinals third baseman David Freese cracked a homer and double, while closer Jason Motte recorded his second save of the postseason.
Friday’s matchup has a pair of marquee right-handed starters squaring off, with Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay (20-6, 2.38 ERA) listed to oppose St. Louis’ Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.56 ERA).
Sportsbooks opened Halladay as a 190 favorite, with early MLB betting action on the Cardinals dropping the premium to minus 175. MLB odds makers first set the ‘total’ at 6 ½ ‘over’ (minus 120), remaining unchanged on most boards after initial betting action.
Halladay returns after strong opener
Roy Halladay was on the hill for Saturday’s 11-6 win for Philadelphia, cashing as a 215 home favorite in Game 1 of the NLDS. The eight-time All-Star allowed three runs in eight innings (105 pitches), including a homer from Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman.
Halladay’s victory avenged the veteran’s Sept. 19 defeat against the Cardinals, with Philadelphia edged out, 4-3, as 199 home ‘chalk.’ Berkman cracked a homer in that matchup as well, finishing 2-for-2 with a pair of RBIs.
Philadelphia is 53-30 in its first 83 home dates, with the ‘under’ going 39-38-6. Halladay is 8-3 in 15 home starts, with a 0.99 WHIP and .253 OBP.
Carpenter back after short stint
Carpenter logged a no-decision in Sunday’s Game 2, with St. Louis rallying in a 5-4 win as a 162 road dog. The 36-year-old gave up all four of Philadelphia’s runs over three innings (64 pitches), allowing five hits and three walks.
Carpenter went 2-0 against the Phillies in his pair of regular-season outings against Charlie Manuel’s club. Philadelphia mustered just one run in a combined 15 innings against Carpenter over the two affairs.
St. Louis is 46-37 in its first 83 road games, with the ‘over’ cashing at 49-31-3. Carpenter has a 7-6 mark in 18 road outings, with a 1.31 WHIP and .314 OBP.
Back the ‘under’ with tight hurlers
Friday’s first pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET). The weather forecast in Philadelphia calls for a clear 60-degree night, with calm winds.
In today's MLB Free Pick I am backing the ‘under,’ looking for a tight battle despite the ‘over’ having gone 3-1 in the series thus far.
Halladay should be able to go deep tonight for the Phillies, while having a surrounding cast of relievers who can be brought in to shut down a clutch situation. The 2010 National League Cy Young winner has been in top form, allowing just 10 earned runs in his last 52 IP.
Carpenter’s early exit in Game 2 should leave the three-time All-Star’s arm sharper for tonight’s must-win affair. The hurler tossed three shutouts in his last five regular-season outings, giving up a stingy five runs over a 40-inning span.
The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Carpenter’s last five outings with four or more days of rest, while going 6-2 in spots that followed Philadelphia giving up five or more runs in its prior game.
Umpire Gary Cederstrom is slated to call the balls and strikes, with the ‘under’ cashing at 6-2 in the North Dakota native’s last eight outings behind the plate. The span included a start from Carpenter on Sept. 23 which went ‘under’ after the veteran allowed just one run in seven innings against the Chicago Cubs.
Before making your MLB Picks here, wait for the ‘total’ to possibly rise come game time and get your best price with the ‘under’ in this deciding duel.
SBR Forum | Joe Freda
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Why Green Bay is "America's Team"
Remember the movie, "Working Girl?" Vintage Melanie Griffith in all her vacuum-cleaning, high-heeled glory?
Anyway, Griffith's Tess McGill resorts to identity theft to climb the corporate ladder. She junks her Staten Island accent, borrows her injured boss' Chanel outfits and helps engineer a huge radio network acquisition. But her best friend warns her: "Sometimes I sing and dance around the living room in my underwear. Doesn't make me Madonna. Never will."
That's how I feel about the Dallas Cowboys. They can sing and dance around their $1.2 billion stadium all they want, but it doesn't make them "America's Team." Never will.
And while I have a very soft spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they're not "America's Team," either. They're not even Pennsylvania's team.
No, it's the Green Bay Packers. Has to be. And this just isn't me talking. Someone once asked the late, great NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle to name the best football city in the country. Rozelle didn't hesitate.
"Green Bay," he said. "A small town. People owning their own football team. Rabid supporters."
Exactly. The Packers are the only publicly owned major sports franchise in the country. No dividends are issued on the 4,750,937 shares held by the 112,158 shareholders. Instead, these people invest in the Packers out of football love, not profit. How American is that?
They bailed the franchise out in 1923, 1935, 1950 and 1997. They pepper the team president and team general manager with questions, good ones, at the annual shareholders meeting. NFL commish Roger Goodell attended last July's event -- and got Q-and-A'd into submission by the football-savvy Packers owners.
And, by the way, shareholders vote for the team's board of directors. Nothing against Steelers fans, but Packers followers do more than wave Terrible Towels. They influence team policy.
Curly Lambeau and George Calhoun established the Packers' franchise in 1919. That's 14 years before Art Rooney Sr. purchased the then-named Pittsburgh Pirates. That's 23 years before Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was even born and 33 years before the Dallas Texans became the last NFL franchise to fail.
Sorry, "America's Team" isn't supposed to fold.
So the Packers have history on their side. First publicly owned NFL franchise. First NFL franchise to hire a gap-toothed Vince Lombardi as its head coach. First team to win the Super Bowl. First team to win two Super Bowls in a row. First team to have a Broadway play about its head coach. First team to make "frozen tundra" part of the football lexicon.
The Packers are the ultimate American success story. They survived and now prosper in the smallest city in the league. They've won 12 NFL championships. Hmmm. Maybe that's why it's called the Lombardi Trophy, not the Jones or Rooney.
Don't get me wrong. The Steelers and Cowboys have formidable trophy cases, too. But it took the Steelers 41 years to win their first championship. And the Cowboys franchise was still in diapers when Lombardi was beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl I.
Ever been to Lambeau Field? It's the Fenway Park of the NFL. It's perfect. It's also unpretentious.
At JerryWorld you get The Art At Cowboys Stadium, including such exquisite pieces as "Unexpected Variable Configuration: A Work in Situ." At Lambeau, you get a hot brat, a cold beer and a chorus of "Go, Pack, Go" while smooshed next to some guy wearing a cheesehead and orange hunting overalls. You tell me what sounds like more fun.
The most-watched show in the 2009 fall TV season was a Packers game. The second-most-watched show in cable history is a Packers game. Five of the top 20 most-watched shows in the fall of 2010 were Packers games.
The real "America's Team" doesn't have professional cheerleaders or a domed stadium. (And to the Rooney family's credit, neither do the Steelers.) You go to a Packers game and you feel like you're at Army-Navy, Bama-Auburn, OU-Texas.
I don't care how much merchandise they sell or how big their stadium is, the Cowboys aren't "America's Team." How can you be "America's Team" when just as many people are rooting against you as they are for you?
Plus, the Cowboys aren't football relevant anymore. In the past 15 years they've won exactly two playoff games and appeared in zero NFC Championship Games. Compare that to the Steelers over the same period (14 wins, two Super Bowl wins, three conference titles) and the Packers (12 wins, one Super Bowl win, three conference titles).
The Packers and Steelers are built for success. The Cowboys are built for melodrama and coaching turnover. And as it turns out, JerryWorld was built so the Packers and Steelers could play Super Bowl XLV there.
So on behalf of the Packers, thank you, Jerry.
ESPN | Gene Wojciechowski
Anyway, Griffith's Tess McGill resorts to identity theft to climb the corporate ladder. She junks her Staten Island accent, borrows her injured boss' Chanel outfits and helps engineer a huge radio network acquisition. But her best friend warns her: "Sometimes I sing and dance around the living room in my underwear. Doesn't make me Madonna. Never will."
That's how I feel about the Dallas Cowboys. They can sing and dance around their $1.2 billion stadium all they want, but it doesn't make them "America's Team." Never will.
And while I have a very soft spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they're not "America's Team," either. They're not even Pennsylvania's team.
No, it's the Green Bay Packers. Has to be. And this just isn't me talking. Someone once asked the late, great NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle to name the best football city in the country. Rozelle didn't hesitate.
"Green Bay," he said. "A small town. People owning their own football team. Rabid supporters."
Exactly. The Packers are the only publicly owned major sports franchise in the country. No dividends are issued on the 4,750,937 shares held by the 112,158 shareholders. Instead, these people invest in the Packers out of football love, not profit. How American is that?
They bailed the franchise out in 1923, 1935, 1950 and 1997. They pepper the team president and team general manager with questions, good ones, at the annual shareholders meeting. NFL commish Roger Goodell attended last July's event -- and got Q-and-A'd into submission by the football-savvy Packers owners.
And, by the way, shareholders vote for the team's board of directors. Nothing against Steelers fans, but Packers followers do more than wave Terrible Towels. They influence team policy.
Curly Lambeau and George Calhoun established the Packers' franchise in 1919. That's 14 years before Art Rooney Sr. purchased the then-named Pittsburgh Pirates. That's 23 years before Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was even born and 33 years before the Dallas Texans became the last NFL franchise to fail.
Sorry, "America's Team" isn't supposed to fold.
So the Packers have history on their side. First publicly owned NFL franchise. First NFL franchise to hire a gap-toothed Vince Lombardi as its head coach. First team to win the Super Bowl. First team to win two Super Bowls in a row. First team to have a Broadway play about its head coach. First team to make "frozen tundra" part of the football lexicon.
The Packers are the ultimate American success story. They survived and now prosper in the smallest city in the league. They've won 12 NFL championships. Hmmm. Maybe that's why it's called the Lombardi Trophy, not the Jones or Rooney.
Don't get me wrong. The Steelers and Cowboys have formidable trophy cases, too. But it took the Steelers 41 years to win their first championship. And the Cowboys franchise was still in diapers when Lombardi was beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl I.
Ever been to Lambeau Field? It's the Fenway Park of the NFL. It's perfect. It's also unpretentious.
At JerryWorld you get The Art At Cowboys Stadium, including such exquisite pieces as "Unexpected Variable Configuration: A Work in Situ." At Lambeau, you get a hot brat, a cold beer and a chorus of "Go, Pack, Go" while smooshed next to some guy wearing a cheesehead and orange hunting overalls. You tell me what sounds like more fun.
The most-watched show in the 2009 fall TV season was a Packers game. The second-most-watched show in cable history is a Packers game. Five of the top 20 most-watched shows in the fall of 2010 were Packers games.
The real "America's Team" doesn't have professional cheerleaders or a domed stadium. (And to the Rooney family's credit, neither do the Steelers.) You go to a Packers game and you feel like you're at Army-Navy, Bama-Auburn, OU-Texas.
I don't care how much merchandise they sell or how big their stadium is, the Cowboys aren't "America's Team." How can you be "America's Team" when just as many people are rooting against you as they are for you?
Plus, the Cowboys aren't football relevant anymore. In the past 15 years they've won exactly two playoff games and appeared in zero NFC Championship Games. Compare that to the Steelers over the same period (14 wins, two Super Bowl wins, three conference titles) and the Packers (12 wins, one Super Bowl win, three conference titles).
The Packers and Steelers are built for success. The Cowboys are built for melodrama and coaching turnover. And as it turns out, JerryWorld was built so the Packers and Steelers could play Super Bowl XLV there.
So on behalf of the Packers, thank you, Jerry.
ESPN | Gene Wojciechowski
Phillies-Cardinals Post-Game Research
Chase Utley ended the season is poor fashion, but has rebounded well through the first four games of the postseason. Chase Utley September vs Postseason in 2011 Sept. Postseason BA .205 .462 OBP .295 .588 Slug pct .337 .769 >>2-for-3, run, RBI on Wednesday
Ryan Howard had his 10th career three-strikeout game in the postseason, easily the most ever. Only one other player has more than half as many.
From Elias: Ryan Howard went 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts on Wednesday. It gives him the highest strikeout rate in MLB postseason history, among those with a minimum of 100 postseason PA. Highest Strikeout Rate MLB Postseason History Ryan Howard 40.4% Pat Burrell 39.2% Reggie Sanders 35.8% Jayson Werth 34.0% Evan Longoria 32.7% >>Minimum 100 plate appearances
The Phillies looked like they were ready to put this series away early Wednesday on but stalled after they ripped a double, triple and single on Edwin Jackson's first five pitches of the game.
Shane Victorino: throwing error in the 1st inning (1st error for him this postseason). He had 0 errors during all of the regular season.
ESPN | Associated Press
Ryan Howard had his 10th career three-strikeout game in the postseason, easily the most ever. Only one other player has more than half as many.
From Elias: Ryan Howard went 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts on Wednesday. It gives him the highest strikeout rate in MLB postseason history, among those with a minimum of 100 postseason PA. Highest Strikeout Rate MLB Postseason History Ryan Howard 40.4% Pat Burrell 39.2% Reggie Sanders 35.8% Jayson Werth 34.0% Evan Longoria 32.7% >>Minimum 100 plate appearances
The Phillies looked like they were ready to put this series away early Wednesday on but stalled after they ripped a double, triple and single on Edwin Jackson's first five pitches of the game.
Shane Victorino: throwing error in the 1st inning (1st error for him this postseason). He had 0 errors during all of the regular season.
ESPN | Associated Press
Brewers-Diamondbacks Post-Game Research
Brewers lost their last last 7 postseason road games (3-10 in postseason road games all-time).
Randy Wolf: winless with a 9.00 ERA in 3 career postseason starts.
Aaron Hill: solo HR in the 6th inning (1st career postseason HR).
Collin Cowgill 2-run pinch-hit single in the 3rd inning. 1st career postseason hit in his 1st postseason at bat.
Randy Wolf: allowed 7 runs in 3 innings. He's the 8th pitcher in postseason history to allow at least 7 runs, pitching 3 innings or fewer, with his team a win away from clinching a postseason series, the first since Fausto Carmona of the 2007 Indians.
Ryan Roberts and Paul Goldschmidt are the 5th pair of teammates to hit grand slams in the same postseason series, the first since Ryan Klesko and Eddie Perez for the 1998 Braves.
Paul Goldschmidt: 3rd rookie to hit a postseason grand slam, joining Gil McDougald (1951 Yankees) and Ricky Ledee (1999 Yankees)
www.espn.com | Associated Press
Randy Wolf: winless with a 9.00 ERA in 3 career postseason starts.
Aaron Hill: solo HR in the 6th inning (1st career postseason HR).
Collin Cowgill 2-run pinch-hit single in the 3rd inning. 1st career postseason hit in his 1st postseason at bat.
Randy Wolf: allowed 7 runs in 3 innings. He's the 8th pitcher in postseason history to allow at least 7 runs, pitching 3 innings or fewer, with his team a win away from clinching a postseason series, the first since Fausto Carmona of the 2007 Indians.
Ryan Roberts and Paul Goldschmidt are the 5th pair of teammates to hit grand slams in the same postseason series, the first since Ryan Klesko and Eddie Perez for the 1998 Braves.
Paul Goldschmidt: 3rd rookie to hit a postseason grand slam, joining Gil McDougald (1951 Yankees) and Ricky Ledee (1999 Yankees)
www.espn.com | Associated Press
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Verlander and Tigers take 2-1 lead over Yankees
Associated Press
DETROIT -- CC Sabathia's wild night has the New York Yankees on the brink of elimination.
Sabathia matched his playoff high with six walks and Derek Jeter struck out with two runners on for the final out in the Yankees' 5-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Monday night that put New York in a 2-1 hole in the best-of-five AL division series.
Now, the AL East champions are counting on a shaky A.J. Burnett in Game 4 at Comerica Park on Tuesday night. Burnett, who was 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA in the regular season, was pushed into a postseason start only because Sabathia's start in Game 1 was suspended because of rain.
More Tigers-Yankees Coverage
"I feel good about what A.J. is going to do for us tomorrow," manager Joe Girardi said.
Sabathia was given an early 2-0 lead but fell short in the matchup of aces, part 2.
New York scored two runs in the first against Justin Verlander before the MVP candidate shut out the potent lineup over the next five innings with 100 mph fastballs and knee-buckling breaking pitches.
The Yankees mounted a rally for the second straight game against closer Jose Valverde in the ninth and fell short. On Sunday, Robinson Cano grounded out with runners on first and second to end the loss.
This time Jeter struck out with two on, and the captain walked away from home plate shaking his head.
"I feel good about Jeter whenever he's up there in those situations because he's been there so many times," Girardi said.
A banged-up Alex Rodriguez was no match for Verlander.
A-Rod grounded out to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead in the first, but finished 0 for 2 with two walks and fell to 0 for 10 in the series. The three-time MVP, nagged by knee and thumb injuries, barely hit better than .200 during the final three months of the regular season.
Girardi has said he will not change his lineup. Anyway, it's unlikely he would do what his predecessor, Joe Torre, did against Detroit in Game 4 of the 2006 ALDS. Torre dropped the slumping star to eighth in the lineup.
Rodriguez was given the green light to swing on a 3-0 pitch from Verlander in the eighth and weakly hit a foul into the seats behind him, then swung and missed on the next pitch, fouled off a pitch that whizzed by at 101 mph before wisely taking a high and inside pitch to draw a walk.
Mark Teixeira also has struggled. He was 0 for 4 Monday and is 1 for 11 in the series.
Free passes were what doomed Sabathia's night.
Sabathia didn't take the loss -- Rafael Soriano did after giving up a solo homer to Delmon Young in the seventh -- but the $161-million ace struggled to get the ball over the plate.
He lasted just 5 1/3 innings and gave up six walks -- one intentional -- seven hits, four runs and just three strikeouts. He also had one wild pitch and many more that were in the dirt or way off target.
"I actually thought he made a lot of good pitches tonight and I thought the zone was a small zone tonight. No disrespect to anyone, but that's what I thought," Girardi said. "That's what I saw."
The last time Sabathia, who can opt out of his contract after this season, was that wild in the playoffs was Oct. 4, 2007, when he was pitching for the Cleveland Indians against the Yankees.
Sabathia's control was so out of whack that he struggled to connect with catcher Russell Martin on one of his intentional-walk tosses.
The Yankees were planning on their ace pitching Game 1 and Game 4, if it was necessary, but rain suspended his first start after 1 1/2 innings.
Plan B puts Burnett on the mound and no one rooting for New York is excited about that. Burnett signed a four-year, $82.5 million contract during the Yankees' blockbuster offseason in which they spent $423.5 million two years ago to add him, Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.
The right-hander hasn't lived up to his end of the bargain, but he has a chance to provide an instant dividend if he can help the Yankees avoid getting eliminated in the Motor City.
www.espn.com | Associated Press
DETROIT -- CC Sabathia's wild night has the New York Yankees on the brink of elimination.
Sabathia matched his playoff high with six walks and Derek Jeter struck out with two runners on for the final out in the Yankees' 5-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Monday night that put New York in a 2-1 hole in the best-of-five AL division series.
Now, the AL East champions are counting on a shaky A.J. Burnett in Game 4 at Comerica Park on Tuesday night. Burnett, who was 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA in the regular season, was pushed into a postseason start only because Sabathia's start in Game 1 was suspended because of rain.
More Tigers-Yankees Coverage
"I feel good about what A.J. is going to do for us tomorrow," manager Joe Girardi said.
Sabathia was given an early 2-0 lead but fell short in the matchup of aces, part 2.
New York scored two runs in the first against Justin Verlander before the MVP candidate shut out the potent lineup over the next five innings with 100 mph fastballs and knee-buckling breaking pitches.
The Yankees mounted a rally for the second straight game against closer Jose Valverde in the ninth and fell short. On Sunday, Robinson Cano grounded out with runners on first and second to end the loss.
This time Jeter struck out with two on, and the captain walked away from home plate shaking his head.
"I feel good about Jeter whenever he's up there in those situations because he's been there so many times," Girardi said.
A banged-up Alex Rodriguez was no match for Verlander.
A-Rod grounded out to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead in the first, but finished 0 for 2 with two walks and fell to 0 for 10 in the series. The three-time MVP, nagged by knee and thumb injuries, barely hit better than .200 during the final three months of the regular season.
Girardi has said he will not change his lineup. Anyway, it's unlikely he would do what his predecessor, Joe Torre, did against Detroit in Game 4 of the 2006 ALDS. Torre dropped the slumping star to eighth in the lineup.
Rodriguez was given the green light to swing on a 3-0 pitch from Verlander in the eighth and weakly hit a foul into the seats behind him, then swung and missed on the next pitch, fouled off a pitch that whizzed by at 101 mph before wisely taking a high and inside pitch to draw a walk.
Mark Teixeira also has struggled. He was 0 for 4 Monday and is 1 for 11 in the series.
Free passes were what doomed Sabathia's night.
Sabathia didn't take the loss -- Rafael Soriano did after giving up a solo homer to Delmon Young in the seventh -- but the $161-million ace struggled to get the ball over the plate.
He lasted just 5 1/3 innings and gave up six walks -- one intentional -- seven hits, four runs and just three strikeouts. He also had one wild pitch and many more that were in the dirt or way off target.
"I actually thought he made a lot of good pitches tonight and I thought the zone was a small zone tonight. No disrespect to anyone, but that's what I thought," Girardi said. "That's what I saw."
The last time Sabathia, who can opt out of his contract after this season, was that wild in the playoffs was Oct. 4, 2007, when he was pitching for the Cleveland Indians against the Yankees.
Sabathia's control was so out of whack that he struggled to connect with catcher Russell Martin on one of his intentional-walk tosses.
The Yankees were planning on their ace pitching Game 1 and Game 4, if it was necessary, but rain suspended his first start after 1 1/2 innings.
Plan B puts Burnett on the mound and no one rooting for New York is excited about that. Burnett signed a four-year, $82.5 million contract during the Yankees' blockbuster offseason in which they spent $423.5 million two years ago to add him, Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.
The right-hander hasn't lived up to his end of the bargain, but he has a chance to provide an instant dividend if he can help the Yankees avoid getting eliminated in the Motor City.
www.espn.com | Associated Press
Friday, September 30, 2011
Terry Francona Expected to Leave Red Sox
Terry Francona met with Red Sox management on Friday morning, and the expected resolution is that he no longer will be the team’s manager, major league sources say.
Shortly after the meeting, which The Associated Press reported, Francona, owner John Henry, and chairman Tom Werner left in separate cars. Francona left first, at 11:55 a.m. No announcement was made.
While Francona’s departure is not certain, it is the likely outcome, in part because he is pressing for a resolution, sources say. He would not be fired; the Red Sox would simply decline their club options on him for 2012 and ’13.
At that point, Francona would be free to pursue long-term contracts with other clubs. The White Sox’s position currently is open, and Francona managed five seasons in their minor-league system in the early 1990s.
The Cubs could be another possibility for Francona once they hire a new general manager and proceed with the expected dismissal of manager Mike Quade. Francona played for the Cubs in 1986.
Or Francona — after eight years under intense scrutiny in Boston — could decide not to manage at all in 2012.
Francona, 52, led the Red Sox to World Series titles in 2004 and ‘07 — the franchise’s first two championships since 1918 — and took the team to the playoffs five times.
His departure would come in the wake of the Red Sox blowing a nine-game game lead in the American League wild-card race, the biggest ever held by a team in September that failed to make the playoffs.
Francona and general manager Theo Epstein met in Boston with reporters on Thursday, one day after the Red Sox were eliminated by a stunning turn of events — a walk-off loss to the Orioles and the Rays’ walk-off victory over the Yankees.
Epstein said that club officials already had been meeting to discuss how the team crumbled, and that, “nobody blames what happened in September on Tito.”
"That would be totally irresponsible and shortsighted,” Epstein said. “As an organization we have to look at our successes and failures, and what happened in 2011 — we take full responsibility for it. All of us collectively look at it as a failure. I'm the general manager, so I take more responsibility than anybody.
“But I know we don't believe in scapegoats, particularly blaming Tito for what happened in September. We all failed collectively. We're all together in this; we've got to live with that. We're not pointing fingers at any one person in particular.”
Epstein, however, may not have the final say. Ownership could conclude that Francona, after eight seasons of leading the Red Sox, has simply run his course as manager.
Francona managed the Phillies from 1997 to 2000. He was a special assistant to the GM with the Indians in 2001, then the bench coach for the Rangers in 2002 and Athletics in ‘03 before taking over the Red Sox in ’04.
__________________________________________________________________________________
www.foxsports.com | Read Original
Shortly after the meeting, which The Associated Press reported, Francona, owner John Henry, and chairman Tom Werner left in separate cars. Francona left first, at 11:55 a.m. No announcement was made.
While Francona’s departure is not certain, it is the likely outcome, in part because he is pressing for a resolution, sources say. He would not be fired; the Red Sox would simply decline their club options on him for 2012 and ’13.
At that point, Francona would be free to pursue long-term contracts with other clubs. The White Sox’s position currently is open, and Francona managed five seasons in their minor-league system in the early 1990s.
The Cubs could be another possibility for Francona once they hire a new general manager and proceed with the expected dismissal of manager Mike Quade. Francona played for the Cubs in 1986.
Or Francona — after eight years under intense scrutiny in Boston — could decide not to manage at all in 2012.
Francona, 52, led the Red Sox to World Series titles in 2004 and ‘07 — the franchise’s first two championships since 1918 — and took the team to the playoffs five times.
His departure would come in the wake of the Red Sox blowing a nine-game game lead in the American League wild-card race, the biggest ever held by a team in September that failed to make the playoffs.
Francona and general manager Theo Epstein met in Boston with reporters on Thursday, one day after the Red Sox were eliminated by a stunning turn of events — a walk-off loss to the Orioles and the Rays’ walk-off victory over the Yankees.
Epstein said that club officials already had been meeting to discuss how the team crumbled, and that, “nobody blames what happened in September on Tito.”
"That would be totally irresponsible and shortsighted,” Epstein said. “As an organization we have to look at our successes and failures, and what happened in 2011 — we take full responsibility for it. All of us collectively look at it as a failure. I'm the general manager, so I take more responsibility than anybody.
“But I know we don't believe in scapegoats, particularly blaming Tito for what happened in September. We all failed collectively. We're all together in this; we've got to live with that. We're not pointing fingers at any one person in particular.”
Epstein, however, may not have the final say. Ownership could conclude that Francona, after eight seasons of leading the Red Sox, has simply run his course as manager.
Francona managed the Phillies from 1997 to 2000. He was a special assistant to the GM with the Indians in 2001, then the bench coach for the Rangers in 2002 and Athletics in ‘03 before taking over the Red Sox in ’04.
__________________________________________________________________________________
www.foxsports.com | Read Original
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Baseball Playoffs Set After Wild Ride
Baseball's wildest wild-card races ever came down to the final minutes of the final day of the regular season Wednesday.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays both earned playoff spots right around midnight, finishing off two of the most spectacular comebacks ever.
St. Louis beat the Houston Astros 8-0 earlier in the night and then watched the Philadelphia Phillies rally in the ninth inning and beat the Braves 4-3 in the 13th, eliminating Atlanta, which had led St. Louis by 10 games for the National League wild card on Aug. 25.
Meanwhile, the Rays clinched the American League wild card by beating the New York Yankees 8-7 in 12 innings after trailing 7-0 in the eighth. Their win came four minutes after the Boston Red Sox blew a one-run lead in the ninth to the Baltimore Orioles and lost 4-3. The Red Sox had held a nine-game lead over the Rays on Sept. 3.
Both races were tied at the beginning of the night. Boston and Atlanta could have forced one-game playoffs with wins, but both lost because closers Jonathan Papelbon and Craig Kimbrel couldn't hold ninth-inning leads.
St. Louis will face Philadelphia in the NL Division Series. Tampa Bay will play the Texas Rangers.
Cardinals roll
In Houston, Chris Carpenter (11-9) struck out 11 and allowed two hits in his 15th career complete-game shutout as St. Louis finished its improbable September charge.
"We had nothing to lose. We were already out of it," Carpenter said. "People were telling us we were done. We decided to go out and play and not embarrass ourselves and do what we can. We played ourselves back into it."
The Cardinals poured onto the field after Carpenter fielded J.D. Martinez's weak grounder for the final out. The celebration was brief and muted, as the team raced into the clubhouse to watch the end of the game in Atlanta.
"It was exciting, there's no doubt about it," Carpenter said. "The way these guys have played the past month and a half has been amazing, every single night grinding, playing their butts off, not giving up.
"We continued to give ourselves an opportunity, and now we are here."
Atlanta's game started an hour earlier, but the Cardinals virtually took away any hope for a Houston victory in the first inning of their contest, jumping to a 5-0 lead against Brett Myers (7-14).
Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman drove in runs with singles, and David Freese doubled to left-center before Myers even recorded an out. Berkman scored when Skip Schumaker's hard grounder ricocheted off Myers' glove for an infield hit, and Freese came home on Nick Punto's single to right.
Carpenter handled the rest.
Rays rally
In St. Petersburg, Fla., the Rays overcame a 7-0 deficit with six runs in the eighth and one in the ninth, and then beat the AL East champion Yankees on Evan Longoria's home run in the 12th.
Longoria hit a three-run homer in the eighth that capped the six-run burst. Pinch-hitter Dan Johnson's two-out, two-strike solo homer in the ninth tied it.
Longoria won it with a one-out shot barely inside the left-field foul pole.
Sox collapse
In Baltimore, the Red Sox completed their September collapse in horrific and historic fashion, allowing two ninth-inning runs in a loss to the Orioles.
A 7-19 swoon had left them tied with Tampa Bay entering the final day. Even if Tampa Bay lost, the Red Sox faced the prospect of a quick turnaround following a long night at Camden Yards that included a rain delay of 1 hour, 26 minutes in the middle of the seventh inning.
The Orioles won the game in the ninth against Papelbon (4-1), who struck out the first two batters before giving up a double to Chris Davis. Nolan Reimold followed with a double to score pinch-runner Kyle Hudson, and Robert Andino completed the comeback with a single to left that Carl Crawford couldn't glove.
Boston became the first team to miss the postseason after leading by as many as nine games for a playoff spot entering September, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Press of Atlantic City | www.pressofatlanticcity.com
The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays both earned playoff spots right around midnight, finishing off two of the most spectacular comebacks ever.
St. Louis beat the Houston Astros 8-0 earlier in the night and then watched the Philadelphia Phillies rally in the ninth inning and beat the Braves 4-3 in the 13th, eliminating Atlanta, which had led St. Louis by 10 games for the National League wild card on Aug. 25.
Meanwhile, the Rays clinched the American League wild card by beating the New York Yankees 8-7 in 12 innings after trailing 7-0 in the eighth. Their win came four minutes after the Boston Red Sox blew a one-run lead in the ninth to the Baltimore Orioles and lost 4-3. The Red Sox had held a nine-game lead over the Rays on Sept. 3.
Both races were tied at the beginning of the night. Boston and Atlanta could have forced one-game playoffs with wins, but both lost because closers Jonathan Papelbon and Craig Kimbrel couldn't hold ninth-inning leads.
St. Louis will face Philadelphia in the NL Division Series. Tampa Bay will play the Texas Rangers.
Cardinals roll
In Houston, Chris Carpenter (11-9) struck out 11 and allowed two hits in his 15th career complete-game shutout as St. Louis finished its improbable September charge.
"We had nothing to lose. We were already out of it," Carpenter said. "People were telling us we were done. We decided to go out and play and not embarrass ourselves and do what we can. We played ourselves back into it."
The Cardinals poured onto the field after Carpenter fielded J.D. Martinez's weak grounder for the final out. The celebration was brief and muted, as the team raced into the clubhouse to watch the end of the game in Atlanta.
"It was exciting, there's no doubt about it," Carpenter said. "The way these guys have played the past month and a half has been amazing, every single night grinding, playing their butts off, not giving up.
"We continued to give ourselves an opportunity, and now we are here."
Atlanta's game started an hour earlier, but the Cardinals virtually took away any hope for a Houston victory in the first inning of their contest, jumping to a 5-0 lead against Brett Myers (7-14).
Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman drove in runs with singles, and David Freese doubled to left-center before Myers even recorded an out. Berkman scored when Skip Schumaker's hard grounder ricocheted off Myers' glove for an infield hit, and Freese came home on Nick Punto's single to right.
Carpenter handled the rest.
Rays rally
In St. Petersburg, Fla., the Rays overcame a 7-0 deficit with six runs in the eighth and one in the ninth, and then beat the AL East champion Yankees on Evan Longoria's home run in the 12th.
Longoria hit a three-run homer in the eighth that capped the six-run burst. Pinch-hitter Dan Johnson's two-out, two-strike solo homer in the ninth tied it.
Longoria won it with a one-out shot barely inside the left-field foul pole.
Sox collapse
In Baltimore, the Red Sox completed their September collapse in horrific and historic fashion, allowing two ninth-inning runs in a loss to the Orioles.
A 7-19 swoon had left them tied with Tampa Bay entering the final day. Even if Tampa Bay lost, the Red Sox faced the prospect of a quick turnaround following a long night at Camden Yards that included a rain delay of 1 hour, 26 minutes in the middle of the seventh inning.
The Orioles won the game in the ninth against Papelbon (4-1), who struck out the first two batters before giving up a double to Chris Davis. Nolan Reimold followed with a double to score pinch-runner Kyle Hudson, and Robert Andino completed the comeback with a single to left that Carl Crawford couldn't glove.
Boston became the first team to miss the postseason after leading by as many as nine games for a playoff spot entering September, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Press of Atlantic City | www.pressofatlanticcity.com
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Red Sox Playoff Hopes at Risk
The Red Sox at least temporarily halted their September slide but they’re still a win or two away from a postseason berth that seemed like a stone cold ‘lock’ just weeks ago. Now they find themselves in a must win situation.
Boston has only itself to blame for the predicament they find themselves in today. On September 4, they led the Wild Card race by nine games. 24 days later they are dead even with the Tampa Bay Rays for the final American League playoff spot.
It didn’t have to be this way and shouldn’t have been this way but it happens when you lose 19 of 26 games in the most important month of the regular season. It’s what happens when many of those losses come against the worst teams in your division. It happens when you realize that maybe you weren’t as good as that $161 million dollar payroll suggested.
Tonight Boston pins it's hopes on Jon Lester (15-9, 3.49 ERA) who is 14-0 lifetime against Baltimore but is also 0-3 with a 10.54 ERA in his last three starts. His recent struggles are one of the reasons that the Red Sox starting rotation has a combined 7.28 ERA this season.
Opposing Lester will be Alfredo Simon (4-9, 4.85 ERA) who is 0-1 this season and lifetime against the Red Sox.
MLB betting odds do favor the Boston Red Sox, having them listed at -215, but I see the Orioles holding a slight edge here while providing a great chance for MLB bettors to make some money on the Red Sox's failures.
Power plus
Boston kept its share of the wild card lead and control of its own destiny with a four home run performance in an 8-7 victory over the Orioles. Rookie catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who was only playing because Boston’s top two backstops, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek were hurt, was the unlikely hero hitting his first two major league home runs.
There’s also a rich bit of irony in the final day of the season. In order to make the playoffs or at very least force a tiebreaker on Thursday, the Red Sox need some help from their American League East rivals, the New York Yankees. To his credit, Yankee manager Joe Girardi says his starters will play and that he’ll treat this as he would any regular season game.
But does that mean that Teixeira or Granderson or Cano will give that little extra effort tonight. They should but there’s no guarantee they will. That’s why the Red Sox need to take care of business against the Orioles.
If the teams remain tied after Wednesday’s season finales, they will meet in a one-game playoff Thursday at Tropicana Field at 4:07 PM ET.
How hard can this be?
The Red Sox (89-71) are 7-19 in September, the second worst record for the club since the 1926 team went 4-18. Two of the setbacks came against Texas, a four apiece against the Orioles and Yankees, three were administered by Toronto, and there was the 0-6 stretch against the Rays. Boston hasn’t had a two-game winning streak since August 27, and tonight would be a great time for another one.
Trending poorly for Boston
The Red Sox are 0-8 following a win and 2-8 in their last 10 road games. However as a team Boston is 16-1 in Lester’s career starts against Baltimore.
Credit the Orioles. They’ve been tough against the contenders and pretenders down the stretch. The Birds hurt the Angels chances taking two out of three. They beat the Yankees, Rays and Tigers twice and haven’t rolled over for anyone.
Red Sox playoff scenario
If Boston wins the wild card, they’ll open the Division Series in Texas or Detroit on Friday.
The weather forecast for Camden Yards tonight is calling for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and 70 degree temps.
www.sbrforum.com | Bob Harvey
Boston has only itself to blame for the predicament they find themselves in today. On September 4, they led the Wild Card race by nine games. 24 days later they are dead even with the Tampa Bay Rays for the final American League playoff spot.
It didn’t have to be this way and shouldn’t have been this way but it happens when you lose 19 of 26 games in the most important month of the regular season. It’s what happens when many of those losses come against the worst teams in your division. It happens when you realize that maybe you weren’t as good as that $161 million dollar payroll suggested.
Tonight Boston pins it's hopes on Jon Lester (15-9, 3.49 ERA) who is 14-0 lifetime against Baltimore but is also 0-3 with a 10.54 ERA in his last three starts. His recent struggles are one of the reasons that the Red Sox starting rotation has a combined 7.28 ERA this season.
Opposing Lester will be Alfredo Simon (4-9, 4.85 ERA) who is 0-1 this season and lifetime against the Red Sox.
MLB betting odds do favor the Boston Red Sox, having them listed at -215, but I see the Orioles holding a slight edge here while providing a great chance for MLB bettors to make some money on the Red Sox's failures.
Power plus
Boston kept its share of the wild card lead and control of its own destiny with a four home run performance in an 8-7 victory over the Orioles. Rookie catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who was only playing because Boston’s top two backstops, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek were hurt, was the unlikely hero hitting his first two major league home runs.
There’s also a rich bit of irony in the final day of the season. In order to make the playoffs or at very least force a tiebreaker on Thursday, the Red Sox need some help from their American League East rivals, the New York Yankees. To his credit, Yankee manager Joe Girardi says his starters will play and that he’ll treat this as he would any regular season game.
But does that mean that Teixeira or Granderson or Cano will give that little extra effort tonight. They should but there’s no guarantee they will. That’s why the Red Sox need to take care of business against the Orioles.
If the teams remain tied after Wednesday’s season finales, they will meet in a one-game playoff Thursday at Tropicana Field at 4:07 PM ET.
How hard can this be?
The Red Sox (89-71) are 7-19 in September, the second worst record for the club since the 1926 team went 4-18. Two of the setbacks came against Texas, a four apiece against the Orioles and Yankees, three were administered by Toronto, and there was the 0-6 stretch against the Rays. Boston hasn’t had a two-game winning streak since August 27, and tonight would be a great time for another one.
Trending poorly for Boston
The Red Sox are 0-8 following a win and 2-8 in their last 10 road games. However as a team Boston is 16-1 in Lester’s career starts against Baltimore.
Credit the Orioles. They’ve been tough against the contenders and pretenders down the stretch. The Birds hurt the Angels chances taking two out of three. They beat the Yankees, Rays and Tigers twice and haven’t rolled over for anyone.
Red Sox playoff scenario
If Boston wins the wild card, they’ll open the Division Series in Texas or Detroit on Friday.
The weather forecast for Camden Yards tonight is calling for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and 70 degree temps.
www.sbrforum.com | Bob Harvey
Nebraska vs Wisconsin Spread Opener
As we enter week 5 of the NCAA Football Season, we're approaching the best matchup of the year, and a historic one to go along with it. The Nebraska Cornhuskers visit Camp Randall Field to play the Wisconsin Badgers in Nebraska's first ever inter-conference game since joining the Big Ten Conference.
This game could have possible BCS Championship Bowl game implications
The Opening line
Sportsbooks have opened with Wisconsin as a 9.5 point favorite. When I first came across this line I was stunned that college football odds makers had listed the legendary and undefeated Nebraska Cornhuskers as a double digit underdog.
Nebraska has an explosive offense, led by quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Rex Burkhead. There was a lot of hype surrounding Nebraska when they decided to make the move to the Big Ten. Although Wisconsin had a great showing last year, Nebraska was immediately installed as the odds on favorite to win the Big Ten Conference this season.
Line Movement
It's still very early in the week but I expect NCAAF bettors backing Nebraska to get involved quickly, in fear of the line dropping. Thus far, the line has gone up to 10, fallen to 9.5, and has currently returned to 10.
Don't expect to see too many Wisconsin bettors to get involved early. The last thing that they want to do is lay double digits against a team like Nebraska that will be filled with adrenaline and looking to make a good impression in the conference and around the country. Therefore, I fully expect the line to drop as the week goes on.
Consistency
What has separated the Nebraska Cornhuskers from other schools has been their consistency. In 25 consecutive years the Cornhuskers have won 9 or more games each season, finished in the top 15 of the AP Poll 24 out of the 25 years, and have been ranked in the weekly AP Poll all but three times. In the 1990's alone, the Cornhuskers went on to win three national championships. These championship teams were known for their exceptional rushing games, and the ground attack remains a key component to the Cornhuskers' attack today.
The Wisconsin Way
When setting the lines, odds makers must examine the way that the team has performed in their recent outtings. Coach Bret Bielema is very proud of his players, and the first thing that he expressed after a 59-10 rout of South Dakota was "Bring on Nebraska!". It's a coach's job to keep his team focused on the task at hand and to not look too far into the future. Well, based on his reaction, it's safe to say that this game has always been in the back of his mind.
Let's face it, Wisconsin has disposed of it's opponents quite easily thus far, as all four of their games have been legitimate spankings. Nebraska, on the other hand, has played well but hasn't had as easy a time as the Badgers have had.
In fact, Nebraska's defense hasn't been anything better than ordinary. They rank 46th in points allowed while Wisconsin ranks 3rd in defense in the nation. We'll get into more statistical details as the week progresses and we dig deeper into this matchup.
Injuries are unavoidable
The Huskers have also had to deal with injuries. Obviously injuries play a major role in the opening line, and last second changes can cause quick line movements just before game time. Jared Crick, who is one of the best defensive tackles in the country, was injured two weeks ago against Washington, and Nebraska's defensive coordinator has refused to disclose the nature of the injury. Crick should be good to go against Wisconsin as Nebraska has been dealing with him cautiously.
Another Cornhusker who's been dealing with a quad injury is senior cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, who has missed the first three games of the season. Although these two key players should fit to play, if declared unable to take the field expect the line to move even higher.
Been there, done that
Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini is taking a different approach than that of his adversary coach, Bret Bielema. He's not concerned with the "average" defensive play by the Huskers. Pelini has confidence in his team and as I've stated earlier, this is a university that has winning in their blood.
Tomorrow we will begin to breakdown the game's 'Total' as well as each team's plan of attack. Stay tuned as I'll be updating you about this exciting matchup throughout the week.
www.sbrforum.com | Joe Catalano
This game could have possible BCS Championship Bowl game implications
The Opening line
Sportsbooks have opened with Wisconsin as a 9.5 point favorite. When I first came across this line I was stunned that college football odds makers had listed the legendary and undefeated Nebraska Cornhuskers as a double digit underdog.
Nebraska has an explosive offense, led by quarterback Taylor Martinez and running back Rex Burkhead. There was a lot of hype surrounding Nebraska when they decided to make the move to the Big Ten. Although Wisconsin had a great showing last year, Nebraska was immediately installed as the odds on favorite to win the Big Ten Conference this season.
Line Movement
It's still very early in the week but I expect NCAAF bettors backing Nebraska to get involved quickly, in fear of the line dropping. Thus far, the line has gone up to 10, fallen to 9.5, and has currently returned to 10.
Don't expect to see too many Wisconsin bettors to get involved early. The last thing that they want to do is lay double digits against a team like Nebraska that will be filled with adrenaline and looking to make a good impression in the conference and around the country. Therefore, I fully expect the line to drop as the week goes on.
Consistency
What has separated the Nebraska Cornhuskers from other schools has been their consistency. In 25 consecutive years the Cornhuskers have won 9 or more games each season, finished in the top 15 of the AP Poll 24 out of the 25 years, and have been ranked in the weekly AP Poll all but three times. In the 1990's alone, the Cornhuskers went on to win three national championships. These championship teams were known for their exceptional rushing games, and the ground attack remains a key component to the Cornhuskers' attack today.
The Wisconsin Way
When setting the lines, odds makers must examine the way that the team has performed in their recent outtings. Coach Bret Bielema is very proud of his players, and the first thing that he expressed after a 59-10 rout of South Dakota was "Bring on Nebraska!". It's a coach's job to keep his team focused on the task at hand and to not look too far into the future. Well, based on his reaction, it's safe to say that this game has always been in the back of his mind.
Let's face it, Wisconsin has disposed of it's opponents quite easily thus far, as all four of their games have been legitimate spankings. Nebraska, on the other hand, has played well but hasn't had as easy a time as the Badgers have had.
In fact, Nebraska's defense hasn't been anything better than ordinary. They rank 46th in points allowed while Wisconsin ranks 3rd in defense in the nation. We'll get into more statistical details as the week progresses and we dig deeper into this matchup.
Injuries are unavoidable
The Huskers have also had to deal with injuries. Obviously injuries play a major role in the opening line, and last second changes can cause quick line movements just before game time. Jared Crick, who is one of the best defensive tackles in the country, was injured two weeks ago against Washington, and Nebraska's defensive coordinator has refused to disclose the nature of the injury. Crick should be good to go against Wisconsin as Nebraska has been dealing with him cautiously.
Another Cornhusker who's been dealing with a quad injury is senior cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, who has missed the first three games of the season. Although these two key players should fit to play, if declared unable to take the field expect the line to move even higher.
Been there, done that
Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini is taking a different approach than that of his adversary coach, Bret Bielema. He's not concerned with the "average" defensive play by the Huskers. Pelini has confidence in his team and as I've stated earlier, this is a university that has winning in their blood.
Tomorrow we will begin to breakdown the game's 'Total' as well as each team's plan of attack. Stay tuned as I'll be updating you about this exciting matchup throughout the week.
www.sbrforum.com | Joe Catalano
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
SportsBetEdge is now on Facebook!
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Saturday, September 17, 2011
Receive a FREE Weekend of Football!
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--SportsBetEdge
Currenly, our MLB picks are 188-103 (+98.42 units), our NFL picks are 12-6 (+7.25), and our NCAAF picks are now 4-1 (+2.80 units) after Boise State covers the 20 point spread yesterday. We also pick soccer occasionally, and we will supply a soccer pick sparingly just to increase the winnings. Our soccer picks are 5-2 (+5.85 units) on the year. The numbers don't lie, we make money and we are helping our clients in the process! SportsBetEdge will guarantee that you will earn profit when you play our picks with our money management process. Thanks and we look forward to hearing from you very soon.
--SportsBetEdge
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Tigers' Verlander going for 11th straight
Justin Verlander (22-5, 2.44) brings a 10-game winning streak into the game and can tie Hal Newhouser's mark off 11 set in 1946 with a victory. Coincidentally, the Tigers also bring a 10-game win streak into the game after pounding the White Sox in Monday's series opener.
That victory gave Detroit an 11-5 season series edge heading into Tuesday's contest.
The MLB odds like Verlander's chances of matching Prince Hal's club record and the Tigers extending their winning stretch. Detroit is a -180 favorite this evening when they face Chicago's Gavin Floyd (12-10, 4.35). The game total is seven.
There's no debating Verlander's overall performance this season. Clearly the front-runner for Cy Young Award, he could become just the 10th different pitcher to win the AL MVP and first since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
If there's one little glitch in his numbers, it's a road ERA that is creeping up and a propensity for giving up the long ball away from Comerica Park.
Verlander has allowed 15 homers in 118.1 road innings, and a 4.17 ERA over his last six away assignments. Still, Detroit is 6-0 in those games and 12-4 when Verlander takes the bump on the road.
The last time Verlander didn't win a start was July 15 at home against Floyd and the White Sox. Chicago got to the Detroit righty for five runs (4 earned) in six innings while Floyd pitched into the eighth giving up just one earned run for the win. The Tigers were -200 chalk in that contest.
Floyd also pitched in Detroit just 10 days ago, leaving after five innings with an 8-4 lead. He wound up with a when the Tigers rallied for a 9-8 win punctuated by a walk-off homer by Miguel Cabrera.
US Cellular Field has not been kind to Floyd in 2011, his ERA here approaching 6.00 while he sports a 3.28 mark away from home. The White Sox are 6-6 in his 12 starts on the South Side diamond, opposing batters popping 9 HR in his 69.1 innings of work.
Floyd and his relievers should have a big stick back in their lineup for this game. Right-fielder Carlos Quentin was activated from the DL and he played part of Monday's game at DH. He'd been out since Aug. 21 with sprained shoulder and is 10 for 34 lifetime vs. Verlander with 3 HR.
The forecasters are calling for a cool evening in the Windy City, clear skies with a light breeze blowing out to center and temps dropping from the upper 60s at game time night (8:10 PM ET) into the 50s as the evening progresses.
www.sbrforum.com | Chance Harper
That victory gave Detroit an 11-5 season series edge heading into Tuesday's contest.
The MLB odds like Verlander's chances of matching Prince Hal's club record and the Tigers extending their winning stretch. Detroit is a -180 favorite this evening when they face Chicago's Gavin Floyd (12-10, 4.35). The game total is seven.
There's no debating Verlander's overall performance this season. Clearly the front-runner for Cy Young Award, he could become just the 10th different pitcher to win the AL MVP and first since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
If there's one little glitch in his numbers, it's a road ERA that is creeping up and a propensity for giving up the long ball away from Comerica Park.
Verlander has allowed 15 homers in 118.1 road innings, and a 4.17 ERA over his last six away assignments. Still, Detroit is 6-0 in those games and 12-4 when Verlander takes the bump on the road.
The last time Verlander didn't win a start was July 15 at home against Floyd and the White Sox. Chicago got to the Detroit righty for five runs (4 earned) in six innings while Floyd pitched into the eighth giving up just one earned run for the win. The Tigers were -200 chalk in that contest.
Floyd also pitched in Detroit just 10 days ago, leaving after five innings with an 8-4 lead. He wound up with a when the Tigers rallied for a 9-8 win punctuated by a walk-off homer by Miguel Cabrera.
US Cellular Field has not been kind to Floyd in 2011, his ERA here approaching 6.00 while he sports a 3.28 mark away from home. The White Sox are 6-6 in his 12 starts on the South Side diamond, opposing batters popping 9 HR in his 69.1 innings of work.
Floyd and his relievers should have a big stick back in their lineup for this game. Right-fielder Carlos Quentin was activated from the DL and he played part of Monday's game at DH. He'd been out since Aug. 21 with sprained shoulder and is 10 for 34 lifetime vs. Verlander with 3 HR.
The forecasters are calling for a cool evening in the Windy City, clear skies with a light breeze blowing out to center and temps dropping from the upper 60s at game time night (8:10 PM ET) into the 50s as the evening progresses.
www.sbrforum.com | Chance Harper
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Top 10 NFL Offensive Changes
There may have been a delay in NFL transactions this season due to the lockout, but the moves did come fast and furious the week after the lockout was lifted, so even with a briefer period than usual for personnel moves, fans still may have trouble identifying the players on their favorite teams this year without a scorecard.
On the offensive side of the ball, the big winners look like the Arizona Cardinals and the Chicago Bears, as each team added two players from our list of the top 10 offensive skill position player moves this off-season, with the Cardinals quickly transforming from potential also-rans to legitimate threats to win an NFC West Division that is the worst division in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles look like the big winners on the defensive end, as they have assembled one of the best secondaries in league history with the additions of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to incumbent Asante Samuel, but we will have more on defensive moves on a future date.
For now, here are the eight NFL teams that should benefit the most from the 10 biggest offensive player moves for 2011.
Arizona Cardinals
Kevin Kolb – QB: Remember that the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl with Kurt Warner at quarterback following the 2008 season, and he then took Arizona to the playoffs the following year. He then retired though, and the Cardinals quickly discovered just how valuable he was last season when they were one of the worst teams in the NFL due to terrible quarterback play. Enter Kolb, who went from sitting on the bench backing up Michael Vick in Philadelphia to giving the Cardinals instant credibility as their starter, especially with one of the most talented receivers in football to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald. Yes, Kolb is unproven at the NFL level, but he had the Eagles’ starting job won before getting injured last season, and we think he is good enough to win games in this week division.
Todd Heap – TE: Heap is a great pass catching tight end that could become Arizona’s second leading receiver once he develops a rapport with Kolb. Granted, he has yet to score more than seven touchdowns in a season, and that came back in 2005, but that could change on a team with an All-World receiver like Fitzgerald, as he will get the opposing defenses’ full attention, opening things up for Heap and the rest of the receiving corps to get lots of touches, especially closer to the goal line. It also helps that Heap may actually be a better receiver than the rest of the Arizona wide-outs with the defection of Steve Breaston to Kansas City.
Chicago Bears
Marion Barber – RB: We do not expect the Bears to challenge the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North this season, but Chicago does now look better with their upgrade at the offensive skill positions than they did a few weeks ago, when we projected them to finish behind the Detroit Lions in the division. Barber will be the Bears’ third down back, and he will get lots of touches near the goal line, which is where he is at his best. That is where Chicago will show improvement, as starter Matt Forte had trouble finishing drives last season due to his relatively smaller stature, and last year’s backup Chester Taylor was a bust.
Roy Williams – WR: Barber is not the only former Dallas Cowboy to move on to the Windy City, as Roy Williams followed after dropping to third on the Dallas depth chart behind Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. This is a nice move for Williams, as he will move right into the starting lineup for the Bears and get reunited with his former offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his pass happy offense. Williams is a big target that quarterback Jay Cutler should be able to find when he is under pressure, which unfortunately happens a lot with Martz’s intricate slow-developing passing schemes, and he also has the speed to stretch defenses. Remember that Williams still scored 12 touchdowns over the past two years despite falling out of favor for the Cowboys, so he is a major upgrade at receiver over what the Bears had last season.
Denver Broncos
Willis McGahee – RB: New Denver head coach John Fox loved using two running backs when he was at Carolina, where DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart shared the carries, so the newly acquired McGahee should carry the ball a lot this season with the Broncos not sold on Knowshon Moreno as the every down back. It also looks like Kyle Orton is still the Broncos’ starting quarterback, so McGahee will get a lot of the goal line touches unless Denver brings in Tim Tebow specifically for those situations. McGahee is a much bigger back than Moreno and remember that he has scored at least five touchdowns in every year since 2004.
Miami Dolphins
Reggie Bush – RB: Bush became expendable in New Orleans when the Saints drafted Mark Ingram, so the move to Miami makes sense, as he will get many more touches than he would have gotten on the Bayou, especially with the Dolphins recently losing Ronnie Brown in free agency. Bush will back up rookie Daniel Thomas for now, but who knows if Thomas can carry the load at this level at his young age, and regardless Bush will be the third down back with his great pass catching ability out of the backfield. Bush’s value this year rises even more when you factor in the instant upgrade he provides Miami as a kick returner.
Minnesota Vikings
Donovan McNabb – QB: Granted, McNabb’s best days are probably behind him and the Vikings are still major longshots to do much of anything this season, but the veteran is still an improvement at the most important position on the field, as it saves Minnesota from having to choose between starting the unproven Joe Webb or rushing along the future of the franchise Christian Ponders more quickly than they would like. Having McNabb on hand to mentor Ponder is just as important than what Donovan does on the field, where he should still do better than he did in his one year in Washington, as he now has a game-breaker in Percy Harvin to throw to and a stud running back in Adrian Peterson to support him and help free up the passing game.
New England Patriots
Chad Ochocinco – WR: Chad’s numbers have not been able to keep pace with his mouth during most of his career, but he could actually have a huge year while starting for the most prolific offense in football, and from a pure talent perspective, he could be the best receiver on the New England roster. Now that was also the case in Cincinnati many years and yet Ochocinco still disappointed, but if he cannot produce numbers in a Bill Belichick offense with Tom Brady throwing him the ball, then it should be time for him to retire. We think he could have one of the best seasons of his career though as long as he keeps his head on straight (which admittedly is not always a given).
New York Jets
Plaxico Burress – WR: It was rather surprising that Burress landed with the Jets when all the speculation had him choosing between his two former teams, the New York Giants or the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Jets are still a good choice for him now that they have released former starter Jerricho Cotchery and lost Braylon Edwards to free agency. That makes Burress the immediate starter despite missing the last two years while doing his jail stint, and he is still young enough where it should not take that long for him to get back into football shape. He also has a nicely developing quarterback in Mark Sanchez to get him the football, and he is obviously a major upgrade as the number two receiver behind Santonio Holmes over all the other unproven receivers on the Jets’ roster.
Tennessee Titans
Matt Hasselbeck – QB: Hasselbeck would have had a decent season had he stayed with the Seattle Seahawks, but he could be better at Tennessee as he has more to work with at wide receiver and running back, assuming Kenny Britt does not get suspended and Chris Johnson does not have a long holdout. It was important for the Titans to get quality quarterback, as Rusty Smith was so horrid when given an opportunity last season that he made Vince Young look good. Hasselbeck fits that bill and he will now get to pass against a couple of the worst pass defenses in the NFL on a regular basis in the AFC South in the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
www.sbrforum.com | LT Profits Sports Group
On the offensive side of the ball, the big winners look like the Arizona Cardinals and the Chicago Bears, as each team added two players from our list of the top 10 offensive skill position player moves this off-season, with the Cardinals quickly transforming from potential also-rans to legitimate threats to win an NFC West Division that is the worst division in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles look like the big winners on the defensive end, as they have assembled one of the best secondaries in league history with the additions of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to incumbent Asante Samuel, but we will have more on defensive moves on a future date.
For now, here are the eight NFL teams that should benefit the most from the 10 biggest offensive player moves for 2011.
Arizona Cardinals
Kevin Kolb – QB: Remember that the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl with Kurt Warner at quarterback following the 2008 season, and he then took Arizona to the playoffs the following year. He then retired though, and the Cardinals quickly discovered just how valuable he was last season when they were one of the worst teams in the NFL due to terrible quarterback play. Enter Kolb, who went from sitting on the bench backing up Michael Vick in Philadelphia to giving the Cardinals instant credibility as their starter, especially with one of the most talented receivers in football to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald. Yes, Kolb is unproven at the NFL level, but he had the Eagles’ starting job won before getting injured last season, and we think he is good enough to win games in this week division.
Todd Heap – TE: Heap is a great pass catching tight end that could become Arizona’s second leading receiver once he develops a rapport with Kolb. Granted, he has yet to score more than seven touchdowns in a season, and that came back in 2005, but that could change on a team with an All-World receiver like Fitzgerald, as he will get the opposing defenses’ full attention, opening things up for Heap and the rest of the receiving corps to get lots of touches, especially closer to the goal line. It also helps that Heap may actually be a better receiver than the rest of the Arizona wide-outs with the defection of Steve Breaston to Kansas City.
Chicago Bears
Marion Barber – RB: We do not expect the Bears to challenge the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North this season, but Chicago does now look better with their upgrade at the offensive skill positions than they did a few weeks ago, when we projected them to finish behind the Detroit Lions in the division. Barber will be the Bears’ third down back, and he will get lots of touches near the goal line, which is where he is at his best. That is where Chicago will show improvement, as starter Matt Forte had trouble finishing drives last season due to his relatively smaller stature, and last year’s backup Chester Taylor was a bust.
Roy Williams – WR: Barber is not the only former Dallas Cowboy to move on to the Windy City, as Roy Williams followed after dropping to third on the Dallas depth chart behind Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. This is a nice move for Williams, as he will move right into the starting lineup for the Bears and get reunited with his former offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his pass happy offense. Williams is a big target that quarterback Jay Cutler should be able to find when he is under pressure, which unfortunately happens a lot with Martz’s intricate slow-developing passing schemes, and he also has the speed to stretch defenses. Remember that Williams still scored 12 touchdowns over the past two years despite falling out of favor for the Cowboys, so he is a major upgrade at receiver over what the Bears had last season.
Denver Broncos
Willis McGahee – RB: New Denver head coach John Fox loved using two running backs when he was at Carolina, where DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart shared the carries, so the newly acquired McGahee should carry the ball a lot this season with the Broncos not sold on Knowshon Moreno as the every down back. It also looks like Kyle Orton is still the Broncos’ starting quarterback, so McGahee will get a lot of the goal line touches unless Denver brings in Tim Tebow specifically for those situations. McGahee is a much bigger back than Moreno and remember that he has scored at least five touchdowns in every year since 2004.
Miami Dolphins
Reggie Bush – RB: Bush became expendable in New Orleans when the Saints drafted Mark Ingram, so the move to Miami makes sense, as he will get many more touches than he would have gotten on the Bayou, especially with the Dolphins recently losing Ronnie Brown in free agency. Bush will back up rookie Daniel Thomas for now, but who knows if Thomas can carry the load at this level at his young age, and regardless Bush will be the third down back with his great pass catching ability out of the backfield. Bush’s value this year rises even more when you factor in the instant upgrade he provides Miami as a kick returner.
Minnesota Vikings
Donovan McNabb – QB: Granted, McNabb’s best days are probably behind him and the Vikings are still major longshots to do much of anything this season, but the veteran is still an improvement at the most important position on the field, as it saves Minnesota from having to choose between starting the unproven Joe Webb or rushing along the future of the franchise Christian Ponders more quickly than they would like. Having McNabb on hand to mentor Ponder is just as important than what Donovan does on the field, where he should still do better than he did in his one year in Washington, as he now has a game-breaker in Percy Harvin to throw to and a stud running back in Adrian Peterson to support him and help free up the passing game.
New England Patriots
Chad Ochocinco – WR: Chad’s numbers have not been able to keep pace with his mouth during most of his career, but he could actually have a huge year while starting for the most prolific offense in football, and from a pure talent perspective, he could be the best receiver on the New England roster. Now that was also the case in Cincinnati many years and yet Ochocinco still disappointed, but if he cannot produce numbers in a Bill Belichick offense with Tom Brady throwing him the ball, then it should be time for him to retire. We think he could have one of the best seasons of his career though as long as he keeps his head on straight (which admittedly is not always a given).
New York Jets
Plaxico Burress – WR: It was rather surprising that Burress landed with the Jets when all the speculation had him choosing between his two former teams, the New York Giants or the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Jets are still a good choice for him now that they have released former starter Jerricho Cotchery and lost Braylon Edwards to free agency. That makes Burress the immediate starter despite missing the last two years while doing his jail stint, and he is still young enough where it should not take that long for him to get back into football shape. He also has a nicely developing quarterback in Mark Sanchez to get him the football, and he is obviously a major upgrade as the number two receiver behind Santonio Holmes over all the other unproven receivers on the Jets’ roster.
Tennessee Titans
Matt Hasselbeck – QB: Hasselbeck would have had a decent season had he stayed with the Seattle Seahawks, but he could be better at Tennessee as he has more to work with at wide receiver and running back, assuming Kenny Britt does not get suspended and Chris Johnson does not have a long holdout. It was important for the Titans to get quality quarterback, as Rusty Smith was so horrid when given an opportunity last season that he made Vince Young look good. Hasselbeck fits that bill and he will now get to pass against a couple of the worst pass defenses in the NFL on a regular basis in the AFC South in the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
www.sbrforum.com | LT Profits Sports Group
Thursday, September 8, 2011
NFL Preview / Review
The NFL begins playing for keeps on Thursday when the New Orleans Saints and reigning Super Bowl champs, the Green Bay Packers open up the regular season. What’s ahead? And what did the preseason tell us, if anything. For starters the NFL futures board changed ever so slightly. The Steelers are now co-favorites with the Patriots at 4/1 to win the AFC title with the Jets, Chargers and Colts right behind.
In the NFC, the Packers are 4/1 followed by the Saints (5/1), Falcons (5-1) and Cowboys (6-1). There’s still no clear cut favorite in the NFC West but Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers have the best odds at 20/1. Next comes the Rams (25/1), followed by Seattle (30/1) and Arizona (50/1). It sounds like the sportsbooks and public alike aren’t thrilled with the upcoming Kevin Kolb era in Phoenix. The Packers and Patriots at 7/1 remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Love for the Lions
Tampa Bay opened as a -4-point pick over Detroit for its home opener at Raymond James Stadium but that number has dropped to -1 at several locations and some NFL odds makers believe that the Lions could actually be favored by the time kickoff rolls around. I’ve been saying it to anyone who will listen. The Lions season goes down the drain when Matthew Stafford gets hurt. They don’t have a proven running game unless you count Jahvid Best who is another serious concussion from having his NFL career cut short. After those two players, there’s not much left on the table.
The defense is another story. Ndamukong Suh who is rapidly earning a reputation as one of the league’s dirtiest players has brought a nastiness to the Lions but unless he can carry the football, throw it and catch it, Detroit is still a long shot to win the NFL title (30/1).
What we learned from the preseason
There were too many injuries again which means the NFL is still overdoing it with the exhibition games. If a player is going to lose his livelihood for a week, a month, the entire season or his career then at least let it happen in a meaningful game. Play an 18-game schedule. The owners wanted it, the players didn’t but maybe after another August filled with needless injuries the union will reconsider. I’m sure the NY Giants wouldn’t mind taking another vote.
Memo to the Packers, Patriots and any other NFL teams that used their starting quarterbacks in Week 4. You were lucky. There is no excuse for risking an entire season by playing your breadwinner in a game where a free-agent scrub from Wattsamatta U puts your guy out for the season. I would expect it from the Rams and maybe even the Patriots but I was stunned to see the Packers start Aaron Rodgers. It wasn’t even safe for the No. 2 QB’s. Just ask Vince Young. The last cut is the deepest Players were getting cut left and right, as teams got down to the 53-man rosters. However because one team didn’t need them, doesn’t mean they’ll be out of work long. Another team with needs specific to that player will grab them off the waiver wire. What’s that old saying, one man’s junk is another man’s treasure? Two teams went undefeated with the Rams and Lions finishing at 4-0. Three teams were winless; the Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders. Two of those teams won their divisions last year and the other team is still in a black hole. Atlanta should be okay but the Chiefs won’t catch anyone by surprise this year.
Mel Kuiper, draft expert
Which rookie QB had the best preseason and is ready to lead his respective team on opening day? How about first-rounder’s Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder? If you answered none of the above you were right. The two best first-year QB’s in the preseason were Andy Dalton of SMU who will start for the Bengals and Ryan Mallett of Arkansas who is Tom Brady’s heir apparent but could start right now for any number of teams. Starting in place of Newton will be Jimmy Clausen and that should tell you all you need to know about that NFL draft pick.
www.sbrforum.com
In the NFC, the Packers are 4/1 followed by the Saints (5/1), Falcons (5-1) and Cowboys (6-1). There’s still no clear cut favorite in the NFC West but Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers have the best odds at 20/1. Next comes the Rams (25/1), followed by Seattle (30/1) and Arizona (50/1). It sounds like the sportsbooks and public alike aren’t thrilled with the upcoming Kevin Kolb era in Phoenix. The Packers and Patriots at 7/1 remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Love for the Lions
Tampa Bay opened as a -4-point pick over Detroit for its home opener at Raymond James Stadium but that number has dropped to -1 at several locations and some NFL odds makers believe that the Lions could actually be favored by the time kickoff rolls around. I’ve been saying it to anyone who will listen. The Lions season goes down the drain when Matthew Stafford gets hurt. They don’t have a proven running game unless you count Jahvid Best who is another serious concussion from having his NFL career cut short. After those two players, there’s not much left on the table.
The defense is another story. Ndamukong Suh who is rapidly earning a reputation as one of the league’s dirtiest players has brought a nastiness to the Lions but unless he can carry the football, throw it and catch it, Detroit is still a long shot to win the NFL title (30/1).
What we learned from the preseason
There were too many injuries again which means the NFL is still overdoing it with the exhibition games. If a player is going to lose his livelihood for a week, a month, the entire season or his career then at least let it happen in a meaningful game. Play an 18-game schedule. The owners wanted it, the players didn’t but maybe after another August filled with needless injuries the union will reconsider. I’m sure the NY Giants wouldn’t mind taking another vote.
Memo to the Packers, Patriots and any other NFL teams that used their starting quarterbacks in Week 4. You were lucky. There is no excuse for risking an entire season by playing your breadwinner in a game where a free-agent scrub from Wattsamatta U puts your guy out for the season. I would expect it from the Rams and maybe even the Patriots but I was stunned to see the Packers start Aaron Rodgers. It wasn’t even safe for the No. 2 QB’s. Just ask Vince Young. The last cut is the deepest Players were getting cut left and right, as teams got down to the 53-man rosters. However because one team didn’t need them, doesn’t mean they’ll be out of work long. Another team with needs specific to that player will grab them off the waiver wire. What’s that old saying, one man’s junk is another man’s treasure? Two teams went undefeated with the Rams and Lions finishing at 4-0. Three teams were winless; the Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders. Two of those teams won their divisions last year and the other team is still in a black hole. Atlanta should be okay but the Chiefs won’t catch anyone by surprise this year.
Mel Kuiper, draft expert
Which rookie QB had the best preseason and is ready to lead his respective team on opening day? How about first-rounder’s Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Christian Ponder? If you answered none of the above you were right. The two best first-year QB’s in the preseason were Andy Dalton of SMU who will start for the Bengals and Ryan Mallett of Arkansas who is Tom Brady’s heir apparent but could start right now for any number of teams. Starting in place of Newton will be Jimmy Clausen and that should tell you all you need to know about that NFL draft pick.
www.sbrforum.com
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Inside Look at our Records!
SportsBetEdge
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MLB Superior Picks = 162-88 (+114.55 units)
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Friday, August 19, 2011
SportsBetEdge: August 18 Results
Another winning night in MLB for SportsBetEdge...
Diamondbacks/Phillies [I]No Run in 1st[/I] (-145) [B][COLOR="Lime"]WIN[/COLOR][/B]
Red Sox [I]Score First[/I] (-200) [COLOR="Red"]LOSS[/COLOR]
Blue Jays/Athletics [I]No Run in 1st[/I] (-170) [B][COLOR="Lime"]WIN[/COLOR][/B]
Rangers/Angels [I]No Run in 1st[/I] (-170) [B][COLOR="lime"]WIN[/COLOR][/B]
[B]Results:[/B] 3-1 (+1.45 units)
Thursday, August 18, 2011
SportsBetEdge: August 17 Results
Huge night for SportsBetEdge and its clients yesterday! Here are the actual results..
Phillies Score First (-120) WIN
Blue Jays Score First (-160) [2x] WIN
Rockies Score First (+135) WIN
Results: 3-0 (+3.43 units)
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Phillies Score First (-120) WIN
Blue Jays Score First (-160) [2x] WIN
Rockies Score First (+135) WIN
Results: 3-0 (+3.43 units)
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Wednesday, August 17, 2011
SportsBetEdge NFL Preseason Special!
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Monday, August 15, 2011
NFL Preseason Week 1 Recap
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason proved that backing the favorites pays off.
As Huey Lewis sang; “It’s Hip to Be a Square” and we salute those of you who took the work out of it and bet the favorites across the board. If you’re one of those aforementioned players you’ve got a real financial leg up on the 2011-12 NFL season. Don’t let your friends give you a hard time either about taking the easy money. Regular or preseason the money all spends the same.
Forget systems or scraping data or burning brain cells trying to decide whether or not to buy off three in the preseason. You didn’t need any of that this weekend. If you had simply bet the home team on Saturday night you would have been 5-0.The closest thing to an upset came in Chicago where the Bears, favored by -2.5 held off the Bills 10-3. Otherwise there was one cover of +6.5, two of +7.5 and one of 8. Overall the favorites have cashed at a whopping 10-5 heading into the Jets and Texans game on Monday night.
The rout is on
The highest scoring game of the week came on Thursday night as the favored Patriots routed the Jaguars 47-12 as backup quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet combined for 335 yards and two touchdowns. New England also rushed for 141 yards finishing with 476 yards. Even though it was just an exhibition game, my hunch is that it’s a harbinger of things to come for both teams. NE easily covered as a -3 point favorite while the total of 32 seems laughable now.
Big D, Little D
The Cowboys and Broncos played in the second highest scoring game of the week with Dallas winning 24-23. Both of Denver’s backup quarterback’s acquitted themselves well with Brady Quinn throwing for 121 yards and a score while Tim Tebow went 6 for 7 for 91 yards. Tebow also had two carries for a total of 15 yards.Tony Romo played briefly for the Cowboys going 3 of 5 for 35 yards. It was his first appearance since suffering a season ending should injury last season. The most impressive performance of the night came from Dallas backup QB Stephen McGee who passed for 208 yards and three touchdowns. McGee was almost singlehandedly responsible for the ‘over’.
Underwhelming
There were a few games on the board that screamed ‘under’ and they didn’t disappoint. Like the Bears and Bills contest that produced 13 points as Chicago prevailed 10-3.
With most of their dream teamers on the bench, the Vick-less Eagles bested the Ravens 13-6 for the second lowest scoring game of the week.
In a game that left me longing for Brett Favre, the Vikings and Titans combined for 17 with Tennessee notching a 14-3 victory falling 16 points shy of the closing line of 33.
Finally there were two other games which fell short of reaching the 30-point mark as the Bucs blanked the Chiefs 25-0 while the Saints spoiled Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers’s coaching debut with a 24-3 victory. San Francisco may have lost the game but may have found a QB in Colin Kaepernick.
Overdrive
Over the years it’s been more difficult for me to handicap the ‘over’ in NFL preseason games and in hindsight not making a NFL pick for the Patriots/Jags to go ‘over’ was a mistake. Bill Belichick has never met a butt kicking he didn’t like and he laid one on Jacksonville.
NFL Handicappers should note that of the 15 games that have been played so far, the totals are almost evenly split with the ‘over’ going 8-7. The Texans are favored by -2.5 points with the total at 34.5 for Monday night’s game against the Jets.
www.sbrforum.com | Bob Harvey | 8/14/2011
Friday, August 12, 2011
Betting Edges in Baseball
Everyone loves home runs. Fans show up at the park hoping to see one hit out of the park, far more so than a second baseman turning a double play, or a Gold Glove first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez stabbing one down the line an preventing a runner to advance. But whilst the hits may please the crowds they are not as important as some other facets of the game when it comes to analysing a teams chances of winning.
Yet, some of the more subtle aspects of the game, like speed and defense, are essential to how a team performs and in turn how MLB handicappers approach baseball betting.
Name the top six teams defensively in baseball last season. Can’t do it? All right, No. 7 on that list is the Tampa Bay Rays, the team that shocked many by winning the competitive AL East. The team that was tops in fewest errors allowed was the Yankees, a group that made it to the ALCs. The surprising Padres were third in fewest errors allowed, in the pennant race until the last week. The Phillies, another division winner, ranked sixth and in between those two, ranked fourth, was the eventual champion San Francisco Giants (Phillies and Giants are playing a series this week).Surprised? Defense may often by quiet, but it goes a long way to helping a pitching staff. You may not think the 2010 Giants’ pitching staff needed any help, but the fact is the airtight defense behind them in the field made the dominant pitching even that much better. Just ask the bats that they steamrolled last October!
When the Rockies and Red Sox met in the 2007 World Series, they ranked No. 1 and 3 in fewest errors allowed. Fans love offense, but notice that the top two AL teams last season in runs scored were the Yankees and Red Sox. NY lost in five games to the Texas Rangers in the playoffs, while the Red Sox didn’t even make the postseason.
Back when power (and steroids) were a part of the show, five teams hit over 200 home runs in 2007 in the Brewers (231), Phillies (213), Reds (204), Yankees (201) and Marlins (201). You can go on and on with all these great offensive statistics, but what stands out about all those teams? None made it to the World Series and only two made the playoffs (each losing in the first round). Last season we had eight teams that topped 170 homers and only one (Yankees) made the postseason. Toronto hit a whopping 257 homers last season, but still finished in fourth place at 85-77.
That’s because offense represents only one aspect of the game. There’s an old motto about “good pitching beats good hitting,” and there’s certainly a lot of truth to it (especially in October). Speed, defense and pitching are essential elements to building a championship baseball team. Several of the last few World Series winners, many surprise teams, were stocked with great defense and pitching in the Angels (2002), Marlins (2003), Red Sox (2004, 2007), White Sox (2005), Phillies (2008) and the Giants (2010).
There was no better balanced team in those areas than the 2005 White Sox, who won it all. The Southsiders got red-hot in October, going 11-1 in the postseason. However, they were not just a team that got hot at the right time, as they were very much the class of the AL Chicago Chicago AL AL AL AL AL Chicago
The Giants copied the pitching and defense formula last season with that great rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez and Barry Zito. They won by preventing the other guy from scoring, rather than trying to outslug them. The high priced Yankees have won just one World Series the last ten years because they’ve paid too much attention to offense and too little to pitching. Meanwhile, the Red Sox won it all in 2004 because of an upgrade in pitching (Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke) and improved defense when they traded for SS Orlando Cabrera in late July. They won it again in 2007 with the addition of starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, plus kids like 2B Dustin Pedroia and CF Jacoby Ellsbury, who upgraded the defense. The powerful slugging teams will get a lot of attention in October, but little things like defense, speed and pitching are more likely to lead the way to wins.
www.sbrforum.com | Jim Feist | July 27, 2011
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