Bears vs Lions Betting Preview

The Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions will finish up the week five schedule with a matchup in primetime on Monday Night Football. NFL odds list the game's total at 48 points, but does the 'Over' or 'Under' hold the most value for bettors?

I have already provided an article focusing on the opening lines for this game's spread, so now lets turn to the 'Total' line and decide what is the best NFL betting option on Monday Night.

The NFL odds boards opened with the 'Total' at 47, and has moved up slightly to 48. This will be a hard hitting, competitive, and possibly even “chippy” game. These two divisional rivals don't like each other and both have a chip on their shoulder and something to prove.

Past Match-ups

You really can't take too much of these past meetings as reliable intel; considering before the end of last season, the Lions were the whipping boys of the NFC North. However, of all the meetings between these two teams in the last ten years, under 48 would have cashed a staggering 16-4, including the two most recent times they hooked up. As I mentioned before, you really can't read too much into that.

The one matchup that does say something is from week one of last year. Matt Stafford was knocked out in the first half with a shoulder injury. Before he left, he went 11/15 with 83 yards. Shaun Hill didn't do much better. He completed less than 50% of his passes and threw a pick. Jay Cutler carved them up for 374 yards and a couple of touchdowns. You might remember this game as the one that Calvin Johnson caught a late touchdown which would have been the winning score, but he didn't finish with the football as he came to the ground and the Lions lost the game. The final score was 19-14 Bears.

The second game between these two was also close and ended 24-20 in favor of the Bears. Once again, the Lions were on the wrong side of a crucial call. Ndamukong Suh was flagged for roughing the passer late in the fourth, which set up first and goal and the game winning score for the Bears.

Cutler vs Stafford; Suh vs Urlacher

The Lions currently rank 7th among NFL teams in passing, while the Bears rank 25th. In the running game, the Lions rank 29th, while the Bears rank 20th. As I mentioned in the spread opener, the Lions will most likely try and throw the ball early and often to take advantage of Chicago's weak secondary. The Bears on the other hand, will try and control the clock by giving a heavy workload to Matt Forte.

I don't really trust the rankings from these two teams either. Once again, the season is still young. The Lions have played a soft schedule while the Bears have had a tough road to week five. The Bears are giving up an average of 23 points per game while the Lions are giving up 19. Both sides, especially Detroit, will be sending a heavy pass rush from their front four trying to disrupt the opposing quarterback.

While it hasn't worked out well in the past (or for any other team this season) the Bears will put two defenders in Calvin Johnson's face all night. The Lions have shown a weakness in running the football, so Stafford will have to rely on his arm against the Bear's cover 2 defense.

NFC North slugfests

Since the season is so young, I like to take these teams 2010 seasons into account a little more; especially the 6 divisional games. The Bears average totals against NFC north opponents last year was just under 37, while the Lions were at 34. The fact is that the NFC North may be the most competitive division in football this year. It could be the NFC South of last season. They know the opponents and their schemes, which makes for a closer more low scoring games.

The general consensus if you look at this game on the surface would tell you to bet the over. The Lions are rolling, the Bears are struggling on defense and Calvin Johnson looks like the second coming of Randy Moss. So the over is a lock, right? Not so fast. As I've mentioned time and again, the season is young and these these two teams have not played equal talent yet. Plus, even though defense this year has been behind offense because of the lockout, they have to catch up sooner than later.

This game will be won by defense. Detroit couldn't run the ball against bad teams, so they will be very one dimensional in their attack. One could argue that the Bears are one dimensional as well, but defending the run is something Detroit hasn't been able to do against any of the teams they have faced. 48 is a hard number to hit, plus, with the short drive from Chicago to Detroit, don't expect there to be zero Bears fans at Ford Field.



SBR Forum | Jordan Sharp