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Monday, October 24, 2011

Ravens vs Jaguars MNF Betting Preview

The Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars are set to battle in this week's MNF game. The second part of our series of articles capping the Monday Night Football showdown is going to discuss betting the total, which is set at 39.

This is the lowest total of all the 13 games in week seven and it could provide some good value bets for you Monday Night NFL picks.

I first examined the opening line for this matchup where the Ravens are favored by seven to nine points on the road. Some have been arguing that NFL odds makers have set the point spread too high, and that the total is very low.

Ravens Soaring

While the Patriot's offense has had a lot of press for dropping thirty points for so many consecutive games, the Ravens have quietly scored 30 + three of their five games, and have averaged 32 points per contest. The Ravens are extremely balanced on offense. Ray Rice is averaging nearly 4.5 yards per carry and while most running backs have had six games to get to these totals, Rice has 700 all purpose yards and 4 touchdowns in five games.

Joe Flacco also has been playing well and silencing some of his critics. After last season, critics around the league were labeling Flacco as an average quarterback that couldn't win the big game. While neither of those labels can be completely disproven just yet, Flacco is leading on of the best AFC teams to another great season. His statistical numbers aren't anything to get excited about. However, he has thrown only four interceptions on the year and his decision making has been better than any time in his career.

While the Ravens offense has been more than serviceable, Baltimore's defense is once again the reason why their team has been so good through five games. Teams are averaging only 11.8 points per game against the Ravens defense and the only time they gave up more than 400 yards of offense in a game, they lost to the Titans.

Gabbert Growing Pains

After replacing Luke McCowen as the Jaguars starting quarterback, Blaine Gabbert has shown some good signs as well as some struggles. However, I am one to argue that he has looked better every game. He even gave his team a chance to win during a last second hail mary against the Steelers last week. However, the Jags rank dead last in passing offense averaging only 132 yards per game.

Jacksonville's defense has been pretty good despite losing five straight. As mentioned in my spread opener, Jacksonville held the Steelers to 70 yards of offense in the second half. With the exception of New Orleans, Baltimore will be the best offense Jacksonville has faced so far this season and Ray Rice is by far the best runner. If the Jags are to slow down the Raven offense, they will have to defend the run better then what they have been.

Betting the Total

On the surface, this line screams over and though it isn't a lock, I can see the Ravens blasting the Jags on the road and scoring another 30 points. Despite Jacksonville being good on defense, they will have a tough time slowing down Ray Rice, who will set up some nice play action passes to a good receiving core for Baltimore.

Even though the Jaguars have had trouble moving the ball, Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to be ok versus the Raven's defense and sooner or later, Gabbert is going to get things together. He is too good of a talent and his supporting cast is better then some of the other's being utilized by other rookie quarterbacks. I'm really high on the Ravens this year and both teams have the ability to put points on the board. 39 is just too inviting of a number.

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