2011 World Series Betting Preview

The 2011 World Series will feature the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers. Read our full breakdown of the pitching matchups, as well as all of the info you need for betting the total in this showdown.

The 2011 World Series begins Wednesday night in St. Louis with the Cardinals hosting the two-time American League champion Texas Rangers. MLB bettors are already dissecting every angle of the game from the money line to the first five innings to the total to the World Series Championship price.

Game 1 is Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Chris Carpenter and the Cards opened at Legends Sportsbook as a slight favorite at -122 with the total at 7.5. To me the intriguing part of MLB betting in this series is the possibility that given the respective offense’s every game could go ‘over’ and with the dominant bullpens a case could be made for the ‘under’ to be the prevalent play.

For starters, Texas manager Ron Washington is going to need to get a lot more from his Game 1 starter C.J. Wilson (16-9, 3.28) who so far has been a playoff bust in 2011. He is 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA in 15 2/3 innings (three starts) this postseason. He's given up 14 earned runs on 21 hits with six of those home runs.

Not surprisingly four of the six games between the Rangers and Tigers went ‘over’ the closing total while the Rangers were 19-12 to the high side in Wilson’s 2011 starts.

St. Louis will have its ace Chris Carpenter (13-9, 3.47 ERA) on the hill in Game 1 as he looks to improve on a 2-0 playoff record and a 3.71 ERA. All three of Carpenter’s starts playoff starts have played ‘under’ the total but he was 18-18 during the regular season. In the National League championship series, the ‘over’ was 4-1-1.

But Wilson has been shoddy in this postseason (0-2 with an 8.04 ERA) and Carpenter is the lone Cardinals starter with a postseason ERA lower than 5.74.

Pitching plans

A glance at the recent work of the starting pitchers on both sides would indicate that this World Series, more so than any other in recent years, could produce a plethora of high scoring games meaning a great time to make your MLB picks in favor of the 'Over'. The starters on each side were bad in the championship series.

The Cardinals' starters went 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA in six games in the National League Championship Series. The Rangers' rotation was 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA in six games in the ALCS. Both teams need much better efforts if they plan to hoist the championship trophy.

Game 2; Derek Holland (14-10, 4.45 ERA) vs. Jaime García (13-7, 3.56 ERA)

One thing these two pitchers will have in common is a short leash.
Garcia made two starts in the NLDS and St. Louis likes to pitch the young lefthander at home whenever possible, thus he gets the call in Game 2. He’s allowed 10 runs in 15.2 innings this postseason, making it out of the fifth inning in just one of his three starts. His ERA in the playoffs is 5.74.

Holland will be making his fourth start of the playoffs and like everyone else in both rotations he has struggled. He’s 1-0 but his ERA is 5.27 and opposing batters are hitting .316. That’s potentially bad news against the predominantly right hand hitting Cardinals lineup.

Game 3; Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.49 ERA) vs. Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40 ERA)

Neither team produced a quality win in their recent series. In fact the longest a team's starter went in any of the combined 12 games was the Rangers' Colby Lewis who lasted 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 against the Tigers. Lewis is also one of the few hurlers on either side with an ERA of under 4.00 (3.43 on the road and 5.54 ERA at home). For his career he’s been a solid postseason starter posting a 2.37 ERA, including a victory in last year’s World Series against San Francisco.

Lohse, however, has been awful in the playoffs so far, with a 7.45 ERA, and 9 runs, 8 earned, in just 9.2 innings. In his 8 career playoff outings, Lohse has a 5.09 ERA.

Game 4; Edwin Jackson (5-2, 3.58 ERA) vs. Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA)

While Harrison hasn’t gone deep into either of his two starts, he has allowed only 2 runs in 5 innings in each game and that should give the Rangers hope. This will be Harrison’s third start and fourth appearance of the playoffs.

The much traveled Edwin Jackson is 1-0 in three starts but his ERA is sky high (5.74) and opposing batters are hitting .316 against him.

*Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa has ‘hinted’ that he may flip flop Lohse and Jackson in the rotation but won’t make that determination until after Game 1 at the earliest.

Following Game 4, most managers will change their rotation depending on how the series is progressing. At the moment, Game 5 would be a rematch of Wilson against Carpenter. Holland and Garcia would square off in Game 6 with Lohse against Lewis for all the marbles.

In 11 postseason games, St. Louis has notched just three quality starts (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed), while the Rangers have just one quality start in 10 outings. The managers share a large part of the blame for the lack of long outings and both skippers aren’t afraid to go to the pen at the first hint of a possible big inning.

Bullpens will decide the winner

Closer Alexi Ogando, a 13-game winner during the regular season has been almost 'Mariano Rivera good' this postseason. He’s got two wins and has allowed one run, four hits and 12 strikeouts in 10.1 innings. He’s had to be good because the Texas starters have come up woefully short. C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison combined for a 6.59 ERA in the ALCS and has turned in just one quality start in 10 postseason games.

St. Louis' bullpen, which ranked 21st in the majors in the regular season with a 3.95 ERA, pitched in just over 54 percent of the team's innings -- the fifth-highest percentage ever for an LCS -- and contributed a 1.58 ERA.

Cruz vs. Pujols

Nelson Cruz is on a ‘high’ that very few players ever experience. After going 1 for 15 in the ALDS against Tampa Bay, he switched into another gear hit .364 against Detroit with six home runs and 13 runs batted in. He is the singular reason the Rangers and not the Tigers are headed to the World Series.

Pujols has turned in his best postseason series since 2002 going 18 for 43 (.419) with 2 homers and 10 RBI’s.

There are other reasons why we should expect a high-scoring series. The Rangers were first in the majors in hitting (.283), second in home runs (210) and third in scoring (5.28). The Redbirds were fifth in scoring (4.70), fifth in batting average (2.73) and 13th in home runs (162).

The baseball world is well aware of Cruz and Pujols and their respective performances but who is this guy David Freese? He who won the NLCS MVP by hitting .545 with three home runs and nine runs batted in and he’s another reason why the ‘over’ figures to be the predominant ‘bet’ in the 2011 Fall Classic.

Overall, the Cardinals are 91-72-1 to the ‘over’ (playoffs included) while the Rangers are 93-74-6 to the high side.

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SBR Forum | Bob Harvey