Halladay vs Carpenter in Game 5

It's do or die as the Phillies and the Cardinals meet in the NLDS Game 5.

The St. Louis Cardinals held on for Wednesday’s 5-3 win as 103 home dogs against the Philadelphia Phillies, forcing Friday’s deciding Game 5 of the rivals’ National League Division Series. Cardinals third baseman David Freese cracked a homer and double, while closer Jason Motte recorded his second save of the postseason.

Friday’s matchup has a pair of marquee right-handed starters squaring off, with Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay (20-6, 2.38 ERA) listed to oppose St. Louis’ Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.56 ERA).

Sportsbooks opened Halladay as a 190 favorite, with early MLB betting action on the Cardinals dropping the premium to minus 175. MLB odds makers first set the ‘total’ at 6 ½ ‘over’ (minus 120), remaining unchanged on most boards after initial betting action.

Halladay returns after strong opener

Roy Halladay was on the hill for Saturday’s 11-6 win for Philadelphia, cashing as a 215 home favorite in Game 1 of the NLDS. The eight-time All-Star allowed three runs in eight innings (105 pitches), including a homer from Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman.

Halladay’s victory avenged the veteran’s Sept. 19 defeat against the Cardinals, with Philadelphia edged out, 4-3, as 199 home ‘chalk.’ Berkman cracked a homer in that matchup as well, finishing 2-for-2 with a pair of RBIs.

Philadelphia is 53-30 in its first 83 home dates, with the ‘under’ going 39-38-6. Halladay is 8-3 in 15 home starts, with a 0.99 WHIP and .253 OBP.

Carpenter back after short stint

Carpenter logged a no-decision in Sunday’s Game 2, with St. Louis rallying in a 5-4 win as a 162 road dog. The 36-year-old gave up all four of Philadelphia’s runs over three innings (64 pitches), allowing five hits and three walks.

Carpenter went 2-0 against the Phillies in his pair of regular-season outings against Charlie Manuel’s club. Philadelphia mustered just one run in a combined 15 innings against Carpenter over the two affairs.

St. Louis is 46-37 in its first 83 road games, with the ‘over’ cashing at 49-31-3. Carpenter has a 7-6 mark in 18 road outings, with a 1.31 WHIP and .314 OBP.

Back the ‘under’ with tight hurlers

Friday’s first pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET). The weather forecast in Philadelphia calls for a clear 60-degree night, with calm winds.

In today's MLB Free Pick I am backing the ‘under,’ looking for a tight battle despite the ‘over’ having gone 3-1 in the series thus far.

Halladay should be able to go deep tonight for the Phillies, while having a surrounding cast of relievers who can be brought in to shut down a clutch situation. The 2010 National League Cy Young winner has been in top form, allowing just 10 earned runs in his last 52 IP.

Carpenter’s early exit in Game 2 should leave the three-time All-Star’s arm sharper for tonight’s must-win affair. The hurler tossed three shutouts in his last five regular-season outings, giving up a stingy five runs over a 40-inning span.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Carpenter’s last five outings with four or more days of rest, while going 6-2 in spots that followed Philadelphia giving up five or more runs in its prior game.

Umpire Gary Cederstrom is slated to call the balls and strikes, with the ‘under’ cashing at 6-2 in the North Dakota native’s last eight outings behind the plate. The span included a start from Carpenter on Sept. 23 which went ‘under’ after the veteran allowed just one run in seven innings against the Chicago Cubs.

Before making your MLB Picks here, wait for the ‘total’ to possibly rise come game time and get your best price with the ‘under’ in this deciding duel.



SBR Forum | Joe Freda