Betting Edges in Baseball

Everyone loves home runs. Fans show up at the park hoping to see one hit out of the park, far more so than a second baseman turning a double play, or a Gold Glove first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez stabbing one down the line an preventing a runner to advance. But whilst the hits may please the crowds they are not as important as some other facets of the game when it comes to analysing a teams chances of winning.

Yet, some of the more subtle aspects of the game, like speed and defense, are essential to how a team performs and in turn how MLB handicappers approach baseball betting. 

Name the top six teams defensively in baseball last season. Can’t do it? All right, No. 7 on that list is the Tampa Bay Rays, the team that shocked many by winning the competitive AL East. The team that was tops in fewest errors allowed was the Yankees, a group that made it to the ALCs. The surprising Padres were third in fewest errors allowed, in the pennant race until the last week. The Phillies, another division winner, ranked sixth and in between those two, ranked fourth, was the eventual champion San Francisco Giants (Phillies and Giants are playing a series this week).

Surprised? Defense may often by quiet, but it goes a long way to helping a pitching staff. You may not think the 2010 Giants’ pitching staff needed any help, but the fact is the airtight defense behind them in the field made the dominant pitching even that much better. Just ask the bats that they steamrolled last October! 

When the Rockies and Red Sox met in the 2007 World Series, they ranked No. 1 and 3 in fewest errors allowed. Fans love offense, but notice that the top two AL teams last season in runs scored were the Yankees and Red Sox. NY lost in five games to the Texas Rangers in the playoffs, while the Red Sox didn’t even make the postseason.

Back when power (and steroids) were a part of the show, five teams hit over 200 home runs in 2007 in the Brewers (231), Phillies (213), Reds (204), Yankees (201) and Marlins (201). You can go on and on with all these great offensive statistics, but what stands out about all those teams? None made it to the World Series and only two made the playoffs (each losing in the first round). Last season we had eight teams that topped 170 homers and only one (Yankees) made the postseason. Toronto hit a whopping 257 homers last season, but still finished in fourth place at 85-77. 

That’s because offense represents only one aspect of the game. There’s an old motto about “good pitching beats good hitting,” and there’s certainly a lot of truth to it (especially in October). Speed, defense and pitching are essential elements to building a championship baseball team. Several of the last few World Series winners, many surprise teams, were stocked with great defense and pitching in the Angels (2002), Marlins (2003), Red Sox (2004, 2007), White Sox (2005), Phillies (2008) and the Giants (2010). 

There was no better balanced team in those areas than the 2005 White Sox, who won it all. The Southsiders got red-hot in October, going 11-1 in the postseason. However, they were not just a team that got hot at the right time, as they were very much the class of the AL from start to finish. The White Sox got off to a 16-4 start, pushed it to 27-9 by mid-May and 57-29 at the All Star break. The team finished with 99 wins, sweeping the hard-charging Indians to end the regular season, allowing 2, 1, and 3 runs. Chicago allowed two runs or less in five playoff games. They had a supremely balanced team, anchored by pitching, speed, and defense. Chicago was third in the AL in steals (137), second in the AL in team ERA (3.61), 4^th in the AL in strikeouts (1,040), 4^th in the AL in fewest walks allowed. Defensively, the White Sox were 5^th in the AL in fielding and 4^th in fewest errors allowed. All that pitching and defense is why Chicago was 95-70 “under” the total.

The Giants copied the pitching and defense formula last season with that great rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez and Barry Zito. They won by preventing the other guy from scoring, rather than trying to outslug them. The high priced Yankees have won just one World Series the last ten years because they’ve paid too much attention to offense and too little to pitching. Meanwhile, the Red Sox won it all in 2004 because of an upgrade in pitching (Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke) and improved defense when they traded for SS Orlando Cabrera in late July. They won it again in 2007 with the addition of starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, plus kids like 2B Dustin Pedroia and CF Jacoby Ellsbury, who upgraded the defense. The powerful slugging teams will get a lot of attention in October, but little things like defense, speed and pitching are more likely to lead the way to wins. 

www.sbrforum.com | Jim Feist | July 27, 2011