Red Sox Playoff Hopes at Risk

The Red Sox at least temporarily halted their September slide but they’re still a win or two away from a postseason berth that seemed like a stone cold ‘lock’ just weeks ago. Now they find themselves in a must win situation.

Boston has only itself to blame for the predicament they find themselves in today. On September 4, they led the Wild Card race by nine games. 24 days later they are dead even with the Tampa Bay Rays for the final American League playoff spot.

It didn’t have to be this way and shouldn’t have been this way but it happens when you lose 19 of 26 games in the most important month of the regular season. It’s what happens when many of those losses come against the worst teams in your division. It happens when you realize that maybe you weren’t as good as that $161 million dollar payroll suggested.

Tonight Boston pins it's hopes on Jon Lester (15-9, 3.49 ERA) who is 14-0 lifetime against Baltimore but is also 0-3 with a 10.54 ERA in his last three starts. His recent struggles are one of the reasons that the Red Sox starting rotation has a combined 7.28 ERA this season.
Opposing Lester will be Alfredo Simon (4-9, 4.85 ERA) who is 0-1 this season and lifetime against the Red Sox.

MLB betting odds do favor the Boston Red Sox, having them listed at -215, but I see the Orioles holding a slight edge here while providing a great chance for MLB bettors to make some money on the Red Sox's failures.

Power plus

Boston kept its share of the wild card lead and control of its own destiny with a four home run performance in an 8-7 victory over the Orioles. Rookie catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who was only playing because Boston’s top two backstops, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek were hurt, was the unlikely hero hitting his first two major league home runs.

There’s also a rich bit of irony in the final day of the season. In order to make the playoffs or at very least force a tiebreaker on Thursday, the Red Sox need some help from their American League East rivals, the New York Yankees. To his credit, Yankee manager Joe Girardi says his starters will play and that he’ll treat this as he would any regular season game.

But does that mean that Teixeira or Granderson or Cano will give that little extra effort tonight. They should but there’s no guarantee they will. That’s why the Red Sox need to take care of business against the Orioles.

If the teams remain tied after Wednesday’s season finales, they will meet in a one-game playoff Thursday at Tropicana Field at 4:07 PM ET.

How hard can this be?

The Red Sox (89-71) are 7-19 in September, the second worst record for the club since the 1926 team went 4-18. Two of the setbacks came against Texas, a four apiece against the Orioles and Yankees, three were administered by Toronto, and there was the 0-6 stretch against the Rays. Boston hasn’t had a two-game winning streak since August 27, and tonight would be a great time for another one.

Trending poorly for Boston

The Red Sox are 0-8 following a win and 2-8 in their last 10 road games. However as a team Boston is 16-1 in Lester’s career starts against Baltimore.

Credit the Orioles. They’ve been tough against the contenders and pretenders down the stretch. The Birds hurt the Angels chances taking two out of three. They beat the Yankees, Rays and Tigers twice and haven’t rolled over for anyone.

Red Sox playoff scenario

If Boston wins the wild card, they’ll open the Division Series in Texas or Detroit on Friday.
The weather forecast for Camden Yards tonight is calling for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and 70 degree temps.



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