[meta content='0;url=http://www.sportsbetedge.com' http-equiv='refresh'/> SportsBetEdge: July 2011

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Monday, July 18, 2011

AL East Divisional Race

A week past the midway point of the MLB season and the American League East Division looks like it will have two familiar rivals, the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees fighting it out to see who wins the title and who get's a wild card berth.

Not far behind in this common 3 team battle in the American League East are the Tampa Bay Rays, 6 games behind the league leading Red Sox. Strap your seatbelts, this is going to be a fight to the finish as there will be just over 2 months of competitive baseball remaining in probably the best division in baseball, the American League East.

Boston Red Sox

Josh Beckett Boston red SoxAt 56-36, the Boston Red Sox lead the Yankees by 1.5 games  for the division lead. They're listed as an 8/5 choice by Bodog to win the AL Pennant and 7/2 to win the World Series. This is a heavy hitting team from number 1-5. Can the Red Sox do the MLB oddsmakers expect and win the American League Pennant and possibly face the Philadelphia Phillies for a World Series Championship?

Offensively, the Red Sox are top heavy in their lineup. Adrian Gonzalez has to be the best acquisition in this past baseball off season. Gonzalez is unstoppable at 17 HR, 77 RBI,.346 BA, 408. Personally, I think that Gonzalez is the best player in baseball. He also put on a display, finishing 2nd in the Home Run Derby. The Red Sox have a true asset in Gonzalez, who's just entering the prime of his baseball career.

Another positive for the Red Sox is the re-emergence of "Big Papi" David Ortiz. Ortiz is mixed up in the whole steroids investigation but has seemed to fly under the radar this season at 19 HR, 58, .298 BA. He's the Big Papi of old, has his confidence back with the same swagger that he carried through the mid-2000's. The Red Sox lineup is loaded with reliable offensive players.
Dustin Pedroia (13 HR, 46 RBI, .291 BA, 16 SB) and Kevin Youkilis (13 HR, 65 RBI, .288 BA, .403 OBP) are considered the team leaders and they don't disappoint. Finally, the Sox have one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball in Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury is having a great, well rounded season with  13 HR, 51 RBI, .317 BA, and 28 SB. These are top numbers from a top level leadoff hitter.

Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are the backbone of the pitching staff. Beckett is considered the ace. When he's on, he's unstoppable. This season, Beckett is 8-3, 2.27 ERA and opposing hitters are hitting just .187 off of him this season. Lester is a good number 2 pitcher for the Sox at 10-4, 3.31 ERA . Jon Lackey hasn't been able to get in the groove this season but he's a winning pitcher while Clay Buchholz (6-3, 3.48) has done a good job Buchholz is presently injured).
Closer Jonathan Papelbon put's fear in the eyes of his opponents. This season, he's picked up the saves (20) and has gotten somewhat lucky as his ERA hovers around the 4.00 mark. The Sox will need Papelbon to put out his best when the season comes to a close.

Overall as a team, the Red Sox are loaded. I'm not thrilled with the price that the betting oddsmakers has them listed at. Anyone can win this division, let alone the World Series. Be rest assured , Boston will be in the mix.

New York Yankees

C.C. Sabathia New York YankeesThe New York Yankees have been playing some solid ball as of late as they're led by their ace C.C. Sabathia. Many felt that theYankees might miss the playoffs this year due to last years free agent market, and their failure to acquire what they needed, but the Yanks are proving them otherwise.
Derek Jeter has picked up his 3000th hit. Can this veteran club pickup some hardware in October? Bodog has them listed as 11/4 to win the Pennant and 6/1 to win the World Series. I think that these prices are fairly accurate for a veteran ball club.

Offensively, this is a team effort. Alex Rodriguez (13 HR, 52 RBI,.295 BA) has to be a concern. Arod is getting up there in age and possibly steroids play a part in his body breaking down. Alex seems to get injured often. He's a question mark. Look for Derek Jeter to have a good 2nd half  after a poor 1st half of the season.
The monkey is off of his back and that 5 for 5 day has to bring Jeter some confidence that he can still hit. His numbers won't stand out but the Yankees are looking for Derek Jeter's timely clutch hitting. Can he do it for another year? I'm leaning towards yes. He's never let this ball club down and don't expect him to let them down if the division goes down to the wire.

The offensive production of the Yankees comes from the pure hitting ability of this season's home run derby winner Robinson Cano (15 HR, 57 RBI, .296 BA) while the power comes from the duo of first baseman Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson. Granderson has the Yankee Stadium swing. Teixeira has lost his ability to hit for average. He need's to regain it soon as he and Granderson both lead the team with 25 home runs a piece. Overall, this is a lineup that can win a division with a bunch of veterans.

When you think of the Yanks pitching staff, C.C. Sabathia is the ace. Sabathia is the best pitcher in baseball. He has 7 consecutive victories and is 14-4 with an ERA of 2.64. Sabathia is putting on as good a pitching display as you're going to see. In his last 41 2/3 innings, Sabathia has given up just 2 runs and struckout 51 batters.

 The rest of the pitching staff is filled with pitchers that can give a good performance on any given day and can also have a bad performance. A.J. Burnett has had somewhat of a bounce back season at 8-7 with a 4.15 ERA. Saying that, the Yankees didn't get what they paid for.

Then there's the greatest closer of all time, Mariano Rivera. The numbers and his age mean nothing. The Yankees can still count on Rivera to shut the door on the opposition when needed.

Look for the Yankees to battle out the division with their hated foe, the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees primary concern is to make the post season, whether it be division title or wild card.

Tampa Bay Rays

Evan Longoria Tampa Bay RaysThe Tampa Bay Rays are currently third in the division, 6 games behind Boston at 50-42. This is where the Rays are expected to be, give or take a game or two. The Rays play better on the road than they do at home. They're 28-20 on the road and they don't have the loudest supportive fans. It's understandable why their a .500 home team. The Rays are currently 15/1 odds to win the pennant while they're a 28/1 shot to win the World Series. These are good betting lines but the Rays would need to get very lucky.

The Rays are an average offensive team and Evan Longoria (11 HR, 43 RBI, .234 BA) has had a very disappointing season.  They have 4 players in double figure home runs but the Rays are poor at getting on base. They're just 19th in OBP and 22nd in BA.. Matt Joyce (13 HR, 43, .295 BA) , Ben Zobrist (11 HR, 48 RBI, .270 BA .10 SB), and B.J. Upton (15 HR, 52 RBI, 245 BA, 22 SB) have all had fairly good season while the Rays can also count on veterans Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. Look for the Rays offense to pick it up as the season is more than halfway complete.

Where the pitching is a concern, Tampa Bay has no ace but 3 above average pitchers in James Shields (8-8, 2.60), Jeremy Hellickson (8-7,3.21), and David Price (9-7, 3.73). WIth Kyle Farnsworth in the bullpen, this is a solid pitching staff.

The Rays are a fairly easy team to assess. They have slightly above average players, which leads to their slightly above average record. The offensive is underperforming a bit and look for a little improvement down the stretch. Anything can happen, this team can't be counted out.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose BautistaThe Blue Jays can beat any given team on any given day but are merely average at 47-48.  Don't expect the Jays to be in consideration for post season play as they sit 10.5 games behind the Red Sox.

The Blue Jays have 2 major hitters to support their offense, one of which is extraordinary in Jose Bautista. Bautista has huge numbers. He has 31 HR, 65 RBI, .336 BA, and .470 OBP. This man almost get's on base half of the time when he steps to the plate. This should be no surprise as Bautista hit 54 homers last season. Without Jose, the Blue Jays would be nowhere.

First baseman Adam Lind has accounted well for himself this season. Lind is batting .304 while also hitting 16 HR, and 52 RBI. With the support of Yunel Escobar, these three players form a solid base to the offense.

The Blue Jays have no legitimate closer and that's a problem. The pitching has been led thus far by Ricky Romero (7-9, 3.18) and Brandon Morrow (6-4, 4.37). Overall pitching is a weakness with Toronto. If they had a legitimate pitching staff, their record would improve drastically with a superstar like Jose Bautista leading the offense.

Toronto should make it a priority to get a legitimate closer and starting pitcher. These needs are really holding this team back.

Baltimore Orioles

David HernandezBringing up the rear in the basemant of the AL East is the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles just broke a 9 game losing streak and stand at 37-54. I'm a little surprised. I didn't expect them to be contenders but I expected the Orioles to be a little better than what they're record tells us. The addition of Vladimir Guerrero hasn't been a successful one thus far. Guerrero has lost his power. He has 7 HR, 31 RBI, .279 BA. His batting average is a little deceptive as Guerrero has only walked 11 times this year. People expected more from an aging Vlad.

Power hasn't been a problem for third baseman Mark Reynolds. Reynolds leads the team with 20 home runs. He has 49 runs batted in and is only hitting .222 but his power is much needed in this Orioles lineup. Nick Markakis (8 HR, 39 RBI, 297 BA)  Adam Jones (14 HR, 54 RBI, .284 BA), and J.J. Hardy (13 HR, 33 RBI, .275 BA) have  been reliable hitters for Baltimore this season while Derek Lee has also been a disappointment like Guerrero. The O's have a pretty good offensive team for a team that's in last place.

Pitching has killed Baltimore. They rank last in ERA at 4.81. The only winning pitcher on the staff is Jake Arrieta (9-6) and he carries a 5.10 ERA. Jeremy Guthrie is the complete opposite. He has a 4.45 ERA and is just 3-13 on the season.  Baltimore hasn't come through for Guthrie in the same manner. These are servicable pitchers at best. Starter Zach Britton has had a decent season but Baltimore needs to improve in the pitching department.

Baltimore needs some pitching and to stay young. Vladimir Guerrero and Derek Lee haven't done the job here.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

MLB Profitable Betting Trends

We are now about a week away from the midpoint of the 2011 Major League Baseball season, so this seems like a good time to take a look back at the fist half and see which trends have been working so far this season and which trends have not.

We took a look at MLB prop betting last week, but we are looking at the more mainstream options this week that you should be able to take advantage of at every sportsbook in the world.  All the started units won or lost are based on the closing betting odds from Pinnacle Sports through completed games of Thursday, June 23.

Best/Worst Money Pitchers (through 6/23/11)
Dillon GeeLet us begin with the starting pitchers. The stated records are the team records when each pitcher starts.

1 – Jason Marquis, Washington (12-3, +12.94 units)
2 – Dillon Gee, New York Mets (10-1, +9.73)
3 – Roy Halladay, Philadelphia (13-3, +8.87)

Marquis is showing no sign of slowing down as he tossed eight scoreless innings in his last start. He has a 3.53 ERA and has allowed three earned runs or less in 11 of his 15 starts, thanks to significantly cutting down his walks compared to past years.

Gee finally tasted defeat in his last start, as he walked six batters while allowed four runs in the first three innings after not walking more than four batters in any entire game in his previous 10 starts. He still has a 3.21 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while limiting batters to a .208 average, but we want to see how he does his second time through the league.

Halladay is the only pitcher in the top three that you would expect to be there, as he remains truly one of the best pitchers on baseball.

And then there is the opposite side of the money spectrum:

214 – J.A. Happ, Houston (3-12, -8.38)
215 – Chris Carpenter, St. Louis (5-11, -10.81)
216 – Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado (3-10, -12.17)

Happ pitches for a team that cannot score, but you really cannot use that excuse when you put up a 5.33 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP like he has.

The huge surprises are the bottom two, as Carpenter and Jimenez were two of the best pitchers in the league last season. Carpenter, in fact, has been great for many years, but he has an uncharacteristic 4.26 ERA this season. However, he did look like his old self when allowing one run and five hits in seven innings last time out, so he may be turning things around.

Jimenez has been more unlucky, as he has now allowed three earned runs or less in his last four starts with just one win to show for it. He has also been overvalued all year after finishing third in the Cy Young voting last season.

A Game of Streaks?
It has been a long held belief that baseball is a game of streaks, and that teams play better after a win and worse after a loss. Well, the effect has been minimal so far as all teams coming off of a win are 556-551, 50.2 percent and all teams coming off of a loss are 551-559, 49.6 percent.

Here are the top three and bottom three teams so far in each category, ranked by winning percentage.

BostonFollowing Win (through 6/23/11)
RankTeamW LWin% Units
  1Boston311370.5%+13.73
  2Cleveland241561.5%+10.56
  3Minnesota191359.4% +9.54
 28San Diego102132.2%-10.67
 29Houston 81929.6% -9.57
 30Chi Cubs 82226.7%-14.28

Following Loss (through 6/23/11)
RankTeamW LWin%Units
  1Philadelphia20 871.4% +9.52
  2NY Yankees181162.1% +5.20
  3Tampa Bay201458.8% +4.83
 28Kansas City162737.2% -8.51
 29Baltimore132534.2%-11.31
 30Minnesota132732.5%-11.23

The Twins have been the best example of the streak theory, as they are in the top three following a win and in the bottom three following a loss on the MLB odds results. However, there are also great examples of regression to the mean, which is actually the antithesis of the streak theory. Examples of those are the performances of the Cubs and Astros off of a win and the Phillies and Yankees off of a loss.

Year of the Road Team?
Home field advantage has always meant less in baseball than it has in other sports, but it has still always existed to a small degree. However, the oddsmakers may be overcompensating for the home teams this season.

All home clubs are a collective 591-534 for just 52.5 percent, and blindly playing all the home teams has produced a loss of -58.25 units. What has been most revealing over the first half though has been that blindly betting on all the road teams has produced an MLB betting profit of +18.06 units!

A breakdown of home and away team favorites and underdogs follows. Please note that favorites are defined as closing higher than -103 at Pinnacle, and underdogs are teams that closed at either -102, -101 or at positive odds. The 20 MLB games that have closed at -103 for each side so far this season are omitted.

MLB 2011 Breakdown through games of 6/23/11 
Home Favorites: 438-352, 55.4%, -51.38
Home Underdogs: 143-172, 45.4%, -6.57
Road Favorites: 172-143, 54.6%, -3.96
Road Underdogs: 352-438, 44.6%, +22.32

As you can see, the road underdogs have produces a nice 22.32 units of profit if bet blindly, and even though road favorites have produces a loss of -3.96, they has still been significantly “less bad” than home favorites.

Run Lines
Break up the Washington Nationals! Not only are the pesky Nats a surprising 38-37 this season, but they also have the best run line winning percentage in baseball at 44-31, 58.7 percent while earning 3.86 run line units. As you might expect however, Washington is 39-22, 63.9 percent as a run line underdog, but only 5-9 as a run line favorite.

In fact, no team in the Major Leagues is over .500 as a run line favorite, although the Philadelphia Phillies are right at .500 at 32-32 overall. That is why the oddsmakers make it so desirable to lay the 1.5 runs by attaching attractive odds to the run line chalk, knowing full well that no favorite this season has covered the run line in more than half of those games, and only five teams have won by at least two runs as favorite more than 45 percent of the time.

Here is a list of those five teams.

Run Line Favorites (through games of 6/23/11)
TeamW LCover%
Philadelphia3232 50.0%
Cleveland1415 48.3%
NY Yankees2528 47.2%
NY Mets1416 46.7%
Detroit2023 46.5%

Now remember that even 46.5 percent may be good enough to turn a profit with run line favorites as long as the odds attached to the -1.5 are sufficient enough, so keep your eyes on this for future betting lines. Also, do not be so quick to automatically dismiss run line underdogs either, especially with teams like the Nationals.